WASHINGTON - A federal judge on Wednesday instructed the U.S. government to commence returning duties collected under President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs after the U.S. Supreme Court declared those levies illegal in late February. Analysts who have reviewed customs data and modeled tariff flows put the potential total for refunds in a range from $168 billion to $182 billion.
Court of International Trade Senior Judge Richard Eaton gave Customs and Border Protection until Friday to present initial ideas for a refund procedure that would avoid resolving the matter through thousands of separate lawsuits. Eaton emphasized the obligation to make affected parties whole, telling a hearing on Wednesday: "I want to make it clear to the customs service that they have to refund any money that was unlawfully collected." The judge also noted that the appropriate method for returning the money remains unsettled.
Official data and independent estimates
Customs and Border Protection last published an assessment figure of $133.5 billion in tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as of Dec. 14. Since that reporting date, independent fiscal research groups have produced higher forward-looking estimates by projecting the data through subsequent weeks and months.
Penn Wharton Budget Model
Economists at the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimate that CBP has collected up to $182 billion in gross revenue from IEEPA tariffs levied between Feb. 4, 2025 and Feb. 23, 2026. That figure was produced using a ground-up forecasting approach that cross-references tariff rates across roughly 11,000 product categories and 233 origin countries to model collections. Using an alternative methodology, Penn Wharton reached a second estimate of about $177 billion by calculating the share of total Treasury customs receipts attributable to IEEPA tariffs through Dec. 14 and then applying that share to later customs receipts.
Budget Lab at Yale University
The Budget Lab at Yale put IEEPA tariff revenue through Feb. 19 at $168 billion. That projection extended the CBP assessments reported through Dec. 14 forward to Feb. 19. Yale’s analysis also estimated that, as of January 2026, the tariffs imposed in 2025 raised average inflation-adjusted customs revenue by $194.8 billion above the 2022-2024 average. That total comprises an increase of $174.7 billion during 2025 and an additional $20.1 billion in January 2026. The Yale group reported an effective U.S. tariff rate of 9.9% prior to the Supreme Court ruling against the IEEPA tariffs.
Temporary tariffs under Section 122 and projected revenue
After the Supreme Court decision, the administration imposed a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and announced an intent for it to rise to 15%. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimated that a 10% Section 122 tariff would produce about $35 billion of net new revenue over the 150-day period the statute allows, increasing to about $50 billion if the rate were 15% during that temporary interval. CRFB further calculated that, if Congress were to approve an extension or if similar revenue were generated through other tariff authorities, the 10-year revenue could exceed $900 billion at a 10% rate or $1.3 trillion at 15%.
The CRFB analysis indicated that while Section 122 duties are in force, they would replace over half of the revenue lost because of the Supreme Court ruling if set at 10% and would replace over three-quarters at a 15% rate. Penn Wharton’s estimates for Section 122 revenue over a 10-year horizon were somewhat higher: it projects $1.51 trillion assuming a 15% rate. Penn Wharton also estimated that revenue from these duties in 2026 could total $136 billion if the levies remained in place for a full year.
Uncertain mechanics and next steps
Despite the numerical estimates of amounts that may be due back to importers, the practical steps for executing refunds are not defined. Judge Eaton’s order asking CBP to propose a refund approach reflects concern about resolving claims en masse and signals the court’s expectation that the agency design a process to return funds without obliging thousands of importers to sue individually. The timeline and shape of any administrative refund scheme will depend on the plans CBP submits and any further court rulings or legislative actions that might affect tariff authority or revenue replacement.
For now, the central facts remain the Supreme Court’s determination that the IEEPA tariffs were unlawful, the judge’s directive to begin refunds, and the divergence among independent estimates that place potential reimbursements in a band between $168 billion and $182 billion.