Economy February 25, 2026

JPMorgan Lifts Long-Term Gold Target to $4,500, Reaffirms $6,300 2026 Year-End Call

Bank cites central bank demand, ETF flows and Fed easing as factors supporting continued bullish outlook for bullion

By Caleb Monroe
JPMorgan Lifts Long-Term Gold Target to $4,500, Reaffirms $6,300 2026 Year-End Call

JPMorgan increased its long-term gold price forecast to $4,500 an ounce while maintaining a year-end 2026 projection of $6,300. Spot gold has climbed roughly 20% this year, reaching a three-week high of $5,248.89 and a record peak of $5,594.82 on January 29, following a 2025 surge of more than 64%. The bank says central bank buying, investor demand and bullion ETF inflows should be sufficient to lift gold to $6,300 by the close of 2026.

Key Points

  • JPMorgan raised its long-term gold forecast to $4,500 an ounce and kept the 2026 year-end forecast at $6,300.
  • Spot gold is up roughly 20% year-to-date, hitting $5,248.89 on Tuesday and a record $5,594.82 on January 29 after a 2025 surge of more than 64%.
  • Drivers cited include geopolitical risks, the Fed's easing cycle, central bank purchases and flows into bullion ETFs; JPMorgan expects central bank and investor demand sufficient to reach $6,300 by end-2026.

JPMorgan on Wednesday adjusted its long-term outlook for gold, raising its target to $4,500 an ounce while holding steady on a year-end 2026 projection of $6,300 an ounce. The bank underlined its continued bullish stance through 2026, saying structural diversification into gold remains intact and that there is room for further appreciation.

Gold has already posted strong gains this year. Spot gold is up about 20% year-to-date, touching a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce on Tuesday. The metal previously reached an all-time intraday peak of $5,594.82 on January 29, following a 2025 rally that exceeded 64%.

JPMorgan pointed to a combination of factors that have propelled prices higher over recent months and that it expects will continue to support the price path through 2026. These drivers include geopolitical risks, the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate easing cycle, ongoing purchases by central banks and flows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. The bank emphasized that lower interest rates can boost the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

On the demand side, JPMorgan said it sees sufficient interest from both central banks and investors this year to ultimately push bullion to its $6,300 year-end 2026 forecast. The bank described the move into gold as a structural diversification trend, leaving open the prospect of additional upside as that trend continues.

Other financial institutions have published similarly elevated pathways for gold. A Bank of America note referenced by market commentary outlined a possible route for the metal to reach $6,000 an ounce within the next 12 months.

JPMorgan also commented on silver. The bank said it is concerned that silver prices may experience further near-term pullbacks, even though the metal could later recover and rise above $100 an ounce this year. Spot silver was trading around $90.70 per ounce on Wednesday, down from a record high of $121.64 reached in late January.

The bank's updated forecasts and the recent price behavior of both gold and silver highlight the continued sensitivity of precious metals to central bank policies, investor allocations and market flows into supported investment vehicles such as bullion ETFs.

Risks

  • Potential near-term pullback in silver prices, which the bank said could fall further before any rebound above $100 an ounce.
  • Gold and silver price trajectories remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and shifts in monetary policy, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing cycle.
  • Market flows into bullion-backed ETFs and central bank buying are important tailwinds, creating exposure to shifts in investor sentiment and institutional demand.

More from Economy

Colombia Seeks Transfer of 25 Trillion Pesos from Private Pension Funds to State System Feb 25, 2026 U.S. Treasury Expands Sanctions on Iran’s Shadow Fleet and Weapons Supply Networks Feb 25, 2026 Reeves Aims for Quiet Spring Forecast as UK Faces Larger Fiscal Tests Ahead Feb 25, 2026 Brazil's BRB Restricted from Using Federal Loan Guarantees, Treasury Says Feb 25, 2026 BofA Sees UK Gilt Sales Falling by £69 Billion in 2026-27 as Spring OBR Forecasts Loom Feb 25, 2026