JP Morgan announced a 15% increase in its long-term gold price forecast on Wednesday, raising that outlook to $4,500 per ounce while leaving its year-end 2026 projection unchanged at $6,300.
In a client note, the bank pointed to several developments behind the adjustment: higher levels of central bank purchasing, public announcements by some entities regarding divestment of U.S. Treasury holdings, and a shift by certain countries to move revenue bases away from the dollar and into the Chinese renminbi. Reflecting these dynamics, JP Morgan said it increased the weighting it assigns to what it describes as the "reserve currency paradigm shift" and to "significant investor diversification," which supported the new long-term $4,500 forecast.
Macquarie Group also updated its near-term and 2026 views earlier this month. It raised its average first-quarter 2026 gold forecast to $4,590 per ounce from a prior $4,300, and lifted its second-quarter estimate to $4,300 from $4,200. Macquarie additionally increased its average 2026 gold price forecast to $4,323 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4,225.
Market prices have moved sharply higher. Spot gold has increased by about 20% so far this year and reached a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce on Tuesday, off its January 29 all-time peak of $5,594.82 an ounce. Those gains follow a 2025 surge for the metal of more than 64%.
Following is a list of analysts' latest gold price forecasts (in $ per ounce):
- J.P. Morgan* - $6,300; reaching $6,300 by 4Q26, February 25, 2026; raises long-term gold price forecast to $4,500.
- Macquarie Group - $4,323 (average 2026); Expects prices to average $4,590 in first quarter and $4,300 in second quarter, February 5, 2026.
- Wells Fargo Investment Institute* - Expects $6,100-$6,300 by end of 2026, February 4, 2026.
- UBS - Raises target to $6,200 for March, June, and September 2026, January 29, 2026.
- Deutsche Bank - $5,500; $6,000 in 2026, January 26, 2026.
- Societe Generale - $6,000 by the end of 2026, January 26, 2026.
- Morgan Stanley - $4,600 for 2026; Bull case is $5,700 for the second half of 2026, January 23, 2026.
- Goldman Sachs - $5,400 by December 2026, January 22, 2026.
- Citi Research - $5,000; Raises 0-3 month price target to $5,000, January 13, 2026.
- HSBC - $4,587 (average 2026); $4,450 by year-end 2026, January 8, 2026.
- ANZ - $4,445 (average); $4,400 by year-end and $4,600 by June 2026, October 16, 2025.
- Bank of America - $4,438 (average); 2026 gold outlook raised to $5,000, October 13, 2025.
- Standard Chartered - $4,488 - October 13, 2025.
- Commerzbank - $4,900; $4,800 by mid-2026, January 13, 2026.
*end-of-period forecasts
These updated forecasts come amid a backdrop of active central bank buying and official commentary on reserve management and Treasury holdings. Brokers have adjusted their weightings and short- to medium-term averages as market participants digest those factors alongside the recent sharp rise in the market price of the metal.
While JP Morgan kept its 2026 year-end estimate at $6,300, the bank's increase to its long-term baseline and other brokers' upward movements underline a broader reassessment among analysts of the structural forces that could support higher gold prices over time.
Readers should note that the forecasts above are those provided by the respective brokerage firms and institutions and reflect their published targets and commentary on the dates shown.
Key points
- JP Morgan raised its long-term gold forecast 15% to $4,500 an ounce but retained a 2026 year-end forecast of $6,300 - this affects commodities markets and investor allocations.
- Central bank buying, public announcements of U.S. Treasury divestment and a shift of some revenues into the renminbi were cited as the drivers behind higher forecasts - these factors intersect with currency markets, sovereign balance sheets and reserve management policy.
- Several other major brokers, including Macquarie, have also raised 2026 forecasts or near-term averages amid a strong run-up in spot gold prices - this is relevant to portfolio managers and commodity-focused funds.
Risks and uncertainties
- The extent and persistence of central bank buying remains a variable that could change the outlook for gold - this uncertainty primarily impacts currencies, reserves and commodity markets.
- Announcements or actions regarding divestment of U.S. Treasuries and shifts into the renminbi represent policy choices whose evolution could alter sentiment and price trajectories - this matters for sovereign portfolios and global fixed income markets.
- Volatility in spot prices, evidenced by a roughly 20% rise this year and a more than 64% surge in 2025, underscores ongoing market risk for investors and commodity traders.