Economy February 24, 2026

Japan's Services Producer Prices Hold at 2.6% in January, Point to Wage-Led Inflation

Stable services PPI and persistent consumer inflation keep central bank on alert for further rate hikes if wage growth translates to broader price pass-through

By Marcus Reed
Japan's Services Producer Prices Hold at 2.6% in January, Point to Wage-Led Inflation

Japan's services producer price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in January, unchanged from December, with higher charges for construction and temporary staff services cited as principal drivers. The Bank of Japan has wound down its massive stimulus program and raised short-term rates to 0.75%, and officials say they are prepared to lift borrowing costs further if price gains persist alongside wage growth.

Key Points

  • Services producer price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in January, the same increase as in December.
  • Higher charges for construction work and temporary staff services were the primary contributors to the rise.
  • The Bank of Japan ended large-scale stimulus in 2024 and lifted short-term rates to 0.75% in December, and has signalled readiness to raise rates further if prices and wages continue to climb.

Summary

Japan's services producer price index increased 2.6% in January from a year earlier, matching the December gain, according to Bank of Japan data. The uptick was led by higher bills for construction work and temporary staff services, underscoring the role of a tight labour market and rising wages in sustaining inflationary pressure.


Data released on Wednesday show that the services producer price index - the measure of prices companies charge one another for services - recorded a 2.6% year-on-year rise in January, the same pace as in December. The BOJ's report attributed the movement primarily to elevated charges in construction activity and in services provided by temporary staffing firms.

The rise in services-sector prices arrived against the backdrop of broader price dynamics: consumer inflation has been above the BOJ's 2% target for nearly four years. Policymakers interpret the persistence of consumer inflation, together with firming wages, as a sign that price pressures are becoming more embedded in the economy.

In 2024 the Bank of Japan ended a decade-long, large-scale stimulus program. In December it raised short-term interest rates to 0.75% on the assessment that Japan was nearing a durable attainment of its 2% inflation goal. The central bank has communicated a willingness to continue raising borrowing costs if price increases remain steady and are accompanied by further wage gains.

Policy watch

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed that the bank will closely monitor whether sustained prospects for higher wages prompt more firms to pass on increased labour costs to customers. That monitoring will be an important input in judging the timing of any additional rate hikes.

Implications

Sector-level details in the producer price data point to specific services segments - notably construction and temporary staffing - where higher charges are contributing to the overall increase. The central bank's recent policy moves and stated conditionality on further tightening link the trajectory of services prices and wage growth directly to future monetary decisions.

Key takeaways

  • Services PPI rose 2.6% in January year-on-year, unchanged from December.
  • Increases were driven by higher charges for construction work and temporary staff services.
  • The BOJ ended its large stimulus in 2024 and raised short-term rates to 0.75% in December, remaining prepared to hike further if inflation and wages continue to rise.

Note on limitations

The information available in the data release focuses on price movements and central bank statements; further details on sector-specific pass-through mechanisms and firm-level pricing strategies were not provided in this release.

Risks

  • If wage gains persist and firms respond by passing higher labour costs onto customers, the BOJ may tighten policy further - affecting borrowing costs and financial conditions.
  • Continued price increases in services sectors such as construction and staffing could feed broader inflation persistence, complicating the BOJ's pursuit of a durable return to target.
  • Limited detail in the release leaves uncertainty over how widespread price pass-through from wages to service prices will be across industries.

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