Economy March 10, 2026

Japan Seeks Fivefold Expansion in Domestic Chip Sales by 2040

Government sets 40 trillion yen target and plans expanded public investment to seize AI-driven demand

By Hana Yamamoto
Japan Seeks Fivefold Expansion in Domestic Chip Sales by 2040

The Japanese government has announced an ambition to raise annual sales of domestically produced semiconductors to 40 trillion yen by 2040, a fivefold increase from current levels. The goal extends an existing 2030 target and will be supported by broader public investment and forthcoming detailed roadmaps to be integrated into next year’s budget planning.

Key Points

  • The government set a target of 40 trillion yen in annual domestic semiconductor sales by 2040, up from about 8 trillion yen today and extending a 15 trillion yen target for 2030.
  • Chips are designated a strategic product for economic security and will be prioritized for expanded public investment; the plan aims to position Japan to capture AI-driven growth in advanced chip design and manufacturing.
  • Detailed roadmaps will be finalised in the coming months and incorporated into next year’s budget planning, making fiscal implementation central to the strategy - sectors impacted include semiconductors, electronics, AI-related industries, and public investment portfolios.

Japan has unveiled a long-term target to lift sales of semiconductors made within the country to 40 trillion yen per year by 2040, part of a wider growth investment initiative under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The new 2040 ambition represents roughly a fivefold increase from present annual sales, which the government estimates at about 8 trillion yen, and builds on an earlier objective of 15 trillion yen by 2030.

The government has identified chips as one of multiple products deemed strategically important for economic security. As such, semiconductors will be a focus of expanded public investment intended to stimulate growth and help Japan capture a larger share of the market as demand rises with the development of artificial intelligence.

Officials said roadmaps with additional detail will be completed in the coming months and that those plans will be folded into next year’s budget planning. The decision to elevate the 2040 target signals a concerted effort to rebalance Japan’s industrial position in semiconductors and to align public resources with the expected expansion of chip design and manufacturing driven by AI.

Japan’s current market position is an important reference point for the strategy. At its peak in the 1980s, the country accounted for half of the global chip market, but that dominance contracted sharply in the following decade amid U.S.-Japan trade tensions and a shrinkage of the domestic electronics industry. Today, Japan holds less than 10% of the global semiconductor market, a gap the government aims to narrow through the new targets and investment measures.

The announcement also included a currency conversion note for context: $1 = 157.7100 yen. Beyond setting numerical targets, the government’s approach emphasizes the need to position Japan to take advantage of AI-driven growth in advanced chip segments, although the specific policy instruments and timing will be clarified in the forthcoming roadmaps and budget allocations.


Context and next steps

With the 2040 figure now established, policymakers will move to design implementation pathways and select areas for focused public investment. Those implementation details are slated to be finalized in the short term and incorporated into the government’s budget-making process for the following year.

Risks

  • Execution risk tied to the final roadmaps and budget decisions - the effectiveness of achieving the 2040 target depends on the specifics of forthcoming policy measures and public investment allocations (impacts public finances and industrial policy).
  • Competitive challenge in catching up with global rivals - Japan currently has less than 10% of the global market, which could limit the speed at which domestic sales expand (impacts semiconductor and electronics sectors).
  • Legacy vulnerability highlighted by past contraction - historical declines linked to trade tensions and a shrinking domestic electronics industry underline structural risks that could affect future recovery efforts (impacts trade-exposed manufacturing and supply chain resilience).

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