U.S. consumer prices ticked up less than forecasters had anticipated in January, but measures that strip out the most volatile components showed an uptick in price pressures at the start of the year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month, following an unrevised 0.3% gain in December.
Economists had projected a 0.3% monthly increase for January. The BLS publication accompanying the report included recalculated seasonal adjustment factors intended to reflect price movements in 2025. The release was marginally delayed because of a recent three-day federal government shutdown.
Data collection disruptions were not new to the CPI series. A longer shutdown in the prior year prevented the gathering of price information for October, a gap that introduced volatility into the month-to-month readings. Forecasters had expected some of that volatility to subside with the January figures.
On a 12-month basis through January, the CPI rose 2.4%, down from 2.7% in December. That slowdown largely reflected higher readings from the previous year rolling out of the annual comparison.
The Federal Reserve monitors the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Indexes as its formal gauge for a 2% inflation objective. Both the PCE measures and the CPI are running above that target.
Separately, the government reported that payroll growth accelerated in January and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% from 4.4% in December. The Fed left its benchmark overnight interest rate in a 3.50% to 3.75% range at its last meeting.
Removing food and energy from the index, so-called core CPI rose 0.3% in January after a 0.2% increase in December. Core CPI has tended to overshoot expectations in January, a pattern that analysts attribute in part to the seasonal adjustment model not fully accounting for one-off turn-of-the-year price increases.
January’s uptick in core prices likely reflected those one-off, turn-of-the-year hikes and the pass-through from broad tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump. On an annual basis, core CPI climbed 2.5% in the 12 months through January, down from 2.6% in December, again reflecting last year’s higher readings dropping out of the year-on-year comparison.
Looking ahead, economists anticipate inflation could strengthen for a period this year. They point to the transmission of import duties into consumer prices and to currency moves - the trade-weighted U.S. dollar depreciated about 7.4% over the previous year against the currencies of the country’s main trading partners - as factors that could boost inflationary pressure.
Summary
Headline CPI rose 0.2% in January versus an expected 0.3%, while core CPI accelerated to 0.3%. Annual CPI slowed to 2.4% as prior-year highs dropped out. Seasonal adjustment revisions and federal shutdown-related data gaps influenced the release. Firmer core inflation combined with a steady labor market may allow the Fed to hold rates steady for a time.
- Key points:
- Headline CPI increased 0.2% in January; economists had forecast 0.3%.
- Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and was up 2.5% year-on-year.
- Labor market showed strengthening: job growth accelerated and unemployment fell to 4.3% from 4.4%. These readings matter for policy and financial conditions.
- Risks and uncertainties:
- Data volatility from past federal shutdowns and recent recalibrated seasonal factors could obscure the near-term inflation trend - relevant for economic forecasters and markets.
- Pass-through from broad tariffs and last year’s weaker dollar - the trade-weighted dollar fell about 7.4% - create upside risks for inflation, affecting import-sensitive sectors and trade-exposed firms.