Economy March 5, 2026

Ireland’s domestic economy grows 4.9% in 2025 as modified domestic demand strengthens

Domestic activity shows momentum even as headline GDP is distorted by large pharmaceutical export flows and notable quarterly swings

By Jordan Park
Ireland’s domestic economy grows 4.9% in 2025 as modified domestic demand strengthens

Ireland’s domestic economy expanded 4.9% in 2025, propelled by a 1.0% rise in the final quarter. The Central Statistics Office said the modified domestic demand measure - which strips out distortions from the multinational sector - recorded solid gains after a 1.8% increase in 2024. Headline GDP grew 12.3% for the year due to a surge in pharmaceutical exports to the U.S., attributed to stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs, while fourth-quarter GDP contracted sharply on the quarter.

Key Points

  • Ireland’s modified domestic demand rose 4.9% in 2025, with a 1.0% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q4 and 6.7% year-on-year growth in Q4.
  • Headline GDP expanded 12.3% for 2025, driven by a large increase in pharmaceutical exports to the U.S., attributed to stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs - impacting trade and pharmaceutical sectors.
  • Quarterly GDP showed volatility: Q4 GDP fell 3.8% quarter-on-quarter (worse than the -0.6% preliminary estimate), while Q3 GDP was revised to show no change quarter-on-quarter and its year-on-year growth was raised to 11.2%.

Ireland’s onshore economy expanded by 4.9% in 2025, supported by a 1.0% increase in activity in the last three months of the year, the Central Statistics Office reported on Thursday.

Officials highlighted the modified domestic demand metric, which is designed to measure underlying economic strength by removing distortions associated with Ireland’s large multinational sector. That indicator showed continued momentum, following a 1.8% rise in 2024.

In the fourth quarter, modified domestic demand climbed 1.0% from the prior quarter and rose 6.7% compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The third quarter’s figure for modified domestic demand was revised upward to a 2.5% quarter-on-quarter gain from an earlier estimate of 2.3%, while the year-on-year rate for that period remained at 5.1%.

By contrast, headline measures of output displayed larger swings tied to multinational trade flows. Ireland’s gross domestic product increased 12.3% for the full year 2025, a rise the statistics office said was driven by a substantial expansion in pharmaceutical exports to the United States. Separate data released alongside the headline figures attributed that surge to stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs.

Quarterly GDP showed greater volatility. Output in the fourth quarter fell 3.8% from the third quarter, a steeper decline than the preliminary estimate of a 0.6% drop. On a year-on-year basis, fourth-quarter GDP growth came in at 2.2%, lower than the initial estimate of 3.7%.

The third quarter’s GDP data were also revised. The quarter was adjusted to show no change from the previous quarter, instead of the earlier estimate of a 0.3% contraction. The year-on-year rate for the third quarter was revised up to 11.2% from a prior figure of 10.8%.

These updates underscore the divergence between measures aimed at capturing domestic demand and headline GDP outcomes that can be heavily influenced by multinational trade and inventory movements in sectors such as pharmaceuticals.

Risks

  • Headline GDP volatility tied to multinational export flows and inventory movements creates uncertainty for interpreting near-term growth; this particularly affects the pharmaceuticals and trade-sensitive sectors.
  • The sharp quarterly decline in Q4 GDP, larger than the preliminary estimate, introduces uncertainty about short-term output trends and their implications for markets and policy.
  • Revisions to prior-quarter figures demonstrate data uncertainty; reliance on revised statistics may complicate assessments for domestic-oriented industries and investors.

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