Economy February 27, 2026

Inflation Eases in Several German States in February, Pointing to Softer National Readings

State-level price growth falls below 2% in key regions ahead of national CPI release at 2 p.m.

By Nina Shah
Inflation Eases in Several German States in February, Pointing to Softer National Readings

Preliminary regional data for February show inflation cooling in multiple German states, with North Rhine-Westphalia dropping below 2% year-on-year and Bavaria and Lower Saxony easing to 1.9%. A harmonised national inflation figure is due at 2 p.m. (1300 GMT), with economists surveyed expecting no change from January's 2.1%.

Key Points

  • North Rhine-Westphalia's year-on-year inflation fell to 1.8% in February, dipping below 2%.
  • Bavaria and Lower Saxony both saw inflation ease to 1.9% in February from 2.1% in January.
  • Official national consumer price data are due at 2 p.m. (1300 GMT); economists surveyed expect the harmonised national inflation rate to remain at 2.1% year-on-year.

Regional consumer price readings published on Friday indicate that inflation moderated in several German states during February, a development that could translate into a lower national inflation rate when official figures are released later in the day.

North Rhine-Westphalia, the country's largest state by population, recorded an annual inflation rate of 1.8% in February, slipping below the 2% threshold. In Bavaria, inflation eased to 1.9% in February from 2.1% in January. Lower Saxony showed a similar pattern, with its rate declining to 1.9% from 2.1% the previous month.

Official national consumer price statistics are scheduled for publication at 2 p.m. (1300 GMT). Economists surveyed in advance of the release are forecasting that the harmonised national inflation rate will remain unchanged at 2.1% year-on-year compared with January.

The regional softening comes against the backdrop of euro zone inflation having fallen to a 16-month low of 1.7% in January, a level below the central bank's 2% target. That wider slowdown has prompted some policymakers to express concern that price growth could decelerate too far.

These state-level movements - with multiple large states showing declines from January - will be reflected in the national tally due this afternoon. The degree to which the national figure diverges from economists' expectations will determine whether the recent regional easing is a temporary trend or indicative of a broader slowdown in price growth.

For now, the available regional figures present a clear picture of month-on-month moderation in headline inflation across key parts of the country, while the final national harmonised rate awaits the scheduled release.

Risks

  • Policymaker concern that price growth could slow too much, reflecting the recent euro zone fall to a 16-month low of 1.7% in January - this introduces uncertainty for monetary policy decisions.
  • Pending national data release at 2 p.m. creates short-term uncertainty about whether the regional easings will pull the national rate lower than expected.
  • If regional moderation persists, it could signal a broader slowdown in inflation, increasing ambiguity for stakeholders awaiting confirmation in the harmonised national figure.

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