Summary
A survey of a dozen economists carried out between February 23 and February 27 points to a wider Indonesian trade surplus in January, driven by continued double-digit export growth that outpaced rising imports. The median trade surplus for January was forecast at $2.76 billion, compared with $2.52 billion in December and $3.45 billion in January 2025. The poll also produced forecasts for consumer price developments due to be released by the government's statistics office on Monday.
Trade balance and trade flows
Respondents to the poll estimated that exports in January 2026 rose 11.07% from a year earlier, a modest deceleration from the 11.64% growth recorded in December. Imports were projected to climb 13.23% year-on-year in January, accelerating from 10.81% in December. Those dynamics produced a median trade surplus estimate of $2.76 billion for the month.
Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has registered monthly trade surpluses since mid-2020 and reached a peak surplus in April 2022 during a commodities boom.
Inflation outlook
The poll produced a median forecast for headline inflation in February of 4.31%, up from 3.55% in January. Annual core inflation, which excludes government-controlled prices and volatile food items, was estimated at 2.48% in February, slightly higher than the 2.45% reported for January.
The country's central bank is targeting an inflation rate of 1.5% to 3.5% in both 2026 and 2027.
Implications and context
The estimates point to an environment in which export strength continues to underpin the trade surplus even as imports accelerate. The upcoming official consumer price release will provide confirmation of the pace of inflation and the extent of core price pressures.
Below are key takeaways and risks identified from the poll findings.
Key points
- Median January trade surplus forecast: $2.76 billion, up from $2.52 billion in December and down from $3.45 billion in January 2025.
- Estimated export growth in January: 11.07% year-on-year; December pace was 11.64%.
- Estimated import growth in January: 13.23% year-on-year; December pace was 10.81%.
- Headline inflation median forecast for February: 4.31%, up from 3.55% in January; annual core inflation estimated at 2.48% in February.
Risks and uncertainties
- Timing and accuracy of official data: The poll provides forecasts ahead of the government's statistics office release on Monday, so actual figures could differ from the median estimates.
- Inflation trajectory versus central bank target: Headline inflation is forecast above the central bank's 1.5% to 3.5% target range for 2026 and 2027, creating uncertainty for monetary policy responses.
- Trade flow variability: Accelerating import growth relative to exports could narrow the surplus if the trend continues, affecting trade-exposed sectors and external balances.
Final note
The poll results offer a snapshot of market expectations for January trade flows and the inflation reading for February. Market participants and policymakers will await the official releases for confirmation of these trends.