Economy February 23, 2026

Hungary Rate Meeting This Week as Regional Data Flow Intensifies

Erste sees easing as a possibility but expects rate stability in February; Croatia and Serbia also set to publish key macro data

By Sofia Navarro
Hungary Rate Meeting This Week as Regional Data Flow Intensifies

The Hungarian central bank will meet this week, with Erste flagging a possible resumption of monetary easing while maintaining a baseline view of unchanged rates in February. Regional statistics due this week include Hungary's unemployment and producer prices, Croatia's fourth-quarter 2025 GDP and detailed inflation and labor figures, and Serbia's January industry, retail, producer price and wage data.

Key Points

  • Hungary's central bank meets this week; Erste notes easing is possible but expects rates to remain unchanged in February - impacts monetary policy and fixed income markets.
  • Croatia will release Q4 2025 GDP including growth structure, plus detailed inflation, unemployment and producer price data; Erste expects about 3% growth - relevant for growth-sensitive sectors and sovereign metrics.
  • Serbia reports January industry, retail, producer price and wage data; Erste says industry likely saw strong effects from the NIS closure while retail should have grown - important for industrial and consumer sectors.

The Hungarian central bank is scheduled to hold an interest rate meeting this week, Erste said, noting that monetary easing could be restarted, although the firm's baseline expectation favors stable policy rates in February.

Alongside the policy meeting, Hungary plans to publish its unemployment rate and producer price figures at the end of the week. Those releases are listed among the key data points regional economists and market participants will be monitoring.

Croatia is due to report its fourth-quarter 2025 GDP statistics this week, including information on the growth structure. Erste anticipates solid growth dynamics in Croatia, projecting roughly 3% growth for the period. In addition to the GDP report, Croatia will provide detailed inflation data as well as its unemployment rate and producer price statistics during the week.

Serbia's calendar for the week includes data on industrial performance and retail sales for January, together with producer prices and wage growth figures. Erste commented that industry in Serbia was most likely heavily affected by the closure of NIS, while retail sales are expected to have expanded at the start of the year.

The collection of scheduled central bank action and a stream of country-level statistics means the coming days will be data-heavy across the region. The published figures - unemployment rates, producer prices, GDP composition, inflation breakdowns, and sectoral activity measures - will be the primary inputs available this week for assessing near-term economic trends for Hungary, Croatia and Serbia.


Data calendar highlights

  • Hungary - central bank interest rate meeting; unemployment rate and producer prices due at week end.
  • Croatia - Q4 2025 GDP including growth structure; detailed inflation, unemployment and producer prices during the week. Erste expects around 3% growth.
  • Serbia - January industry and retail performance; producer prices and wage growth. Erste notes likely heavy industry impact from the NIS closure and expects retail sales growth at the start of the year.

Risks

  • Uncertainty on whether the Hungarian central bank will resume easing this week versus keeping rates stable - affects interest-rate-sensitive sectors and bond markets.
  • Potential for stronger-than-expected or weaker-than-expected readings in Croatia's Q4 GDP and inflation breakdown to alter the current growth assessment - impacts growth-exposed assets and fiscal assessments.
  • Serbia's industrial data may reflect significant disruption from the NIS closure, creating uncertainty for industrial output and related supply chains; retail and wage figures also carry near-term uncertainty.

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