Goldman Sachs has cut its outlook for the global personal computer market, forecasting a sharper contraction in shipments for 2026 as manufacturers contend with rising input prices and a cooling replacement cadence. The investment bank now expects 2026 global PC shipments to fall 10% year-on-year to 257 million units, a revision driven by several intersecting pressures on demand and margins.
At the center of Goldman's reassessment is what it describes as a "flattening" of the replacement cycle following an elevated wave of upgrades that shifted demand into the fourth quarter of 2025. That pull-in of purchases means fewer near-term replacements, weighing on unit volumes for the year ahead.
Meanwhile, the sector is experiencing a squeeze on profitability tied to rising raw material costs. Goldman singles out increases in memory prices as a key factor, noting that higher component costs are eroding the economics of entry-level devices and compressing manufacturer margins. Those cost dynamics contribute to the firm's decision to lower shipment estimates across its 2026-2028 model.
Despite the weaker headline numbers, Goldman identifies a contrasting trend within the premium segment. The bank highlights a rapidly growing category it calls the AI PC - machines capable of supporting local, on-device artificial intelligence workloads. Goldman models AI-capable shipments at 150 million units in 2026, a figure that equates to 59% market penetration for that year.
Goldman argues that high-end AI-capable systems are more resilient to current pressures because their higher average selling prices provide greater flexibility to absorb rising material expenses. The bank characterizes the premium AI PC cycle as a "virtuous cycle" in which demand for enhanced edge computing capabilities supports stronger pricing and margins relative to the entry-level tier.
Projecting forward, Goldman expects AI-capable models to become increasingly dominant, forecasting that by 2028 they will represent 81% of the total PC market. The firm notes that this shift toward AI-centric hardware is likely to advantage a subset of manufacturers and suppliers that can service edge computing requirements at scale.
Goldman’s updated model tracks the strategic positioning of several industry leaders as they tilt product mixes toward higher-margin AI and edge-focused designs. The report explicitly follows Apple, Lenovo, HP, and Dell as they adjust portfolios to capture growing demand for AI edge computing.
Overall, Goldman sees the PC industry entering a period of volume contraction and margin pressure, counterbalanced by a structural move toward premium, AI-capable devices that could reshape vendor share and profitability over the coming years.
Key Points
- Goldman forecasts a 10% decline in global PC shipments for 2026, to 257 million units.
- Rising memory and other raw material costs are compressing margins, particularly for entry-level hardware.
- AI-capable PCs are expected to reach 150 million units in 2026 (59% penetration) and 81% of the market by 2028, benefiting premium-focused suppliers and edge computing strategies.
Risks and Uncertainties
- Persistently high memory costs may continue to pressure margins and dampen volumes, especially in the entry-level segment.
- A post-upgrade inventory or demand hangover from the late-2025 replacement surge could prolong the shipment decline into 2027 and beyond.
- The market's reliance on a rapid shift to AI-capable hardware creates uncertainty if adoption patterns or price sensitivity diverge from Goldman’s model.