Goldman Sachs said on Thursday that a temporary rise in oil prices to $100 per barrel could trim global growth by 0.4 percentage point as an expanding conflict in Iran constrains key Middle East oil and gas flows. The warning frames a scenario in which energy market disruption directly influences macroeconomic outcomes.
Under its baseline projection, Goldman expects oil prices to climb somewhat further before easing to an average of $76 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. In an upside scenario, the bank models prices reaching about $100 per barrel before normalizing through 2026.
Goldman quantifies the macro impact of these paths. In the baseline, the firm calculates a "modest" 0.1 percentage point drag on global GDP growth accompanied by a 0.2 percentage point increase in global headline inflation. By contrast, a temporary jump to $100 per barrel would be associated with a 0.4 percentage point slowdown in global growth and could drive a 0.7 percentage point rise in global headline inflation.
The brokerage also examined implications for central banks. It notes that while monetary authorities have not historically reacted directly to oil price shocks, they typically tighten policy modestly when inflation is elevated or when shocks are large. As a result, Goldman expects the global monetary policy outlook to remain largely unchanged under the baseline forecast. However, the bank cautions that policy could turn more hawkish if oil prices hit $100 per barrel or if higher costs feed through to consumer prices at a faster-than-normal pace - an outcome that could include delays in rate cuts in emerging markets.
Goldman highlights the distributional effects of higher oil prices. Rising energy costs are expected to erode real incomes and depress consumer spending in energy-importing countries. Conversely, oil-exporting nations, including Canada and several Latin American economies, may see a benefit from stronger commodity revenues.
The bank's analysis underlines how an external geopolitical shock to energy supplies can transmit to growth, inflation, and monetary policy, with differentiated effects across regions depending on their roles as net importers or exporters of oil.