Goldman Sachs has adjusted its macroeconomic outlook to reflect a sharper near-term rise in oil prices tied to the war with Iran, lifting its inflation forecasts for December 2026 while trimming its growth outlook for the year.
In a client note, Goldman analyst Manuel Abecasis said the firm's commodity strategists now see Brent crude averaging $98 in March and April - a level that is 40% above the 2025 average - before declining to $71 by the fourth quarter of 2026. The bank also outlined an upside scenario, under which flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for a full month, that would push average Brent to $110 in March and April.
Goldman applied its internal rules of thumb to translate those oil moves into macro effects. The bank estimates that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices raises headline PCE inflation by 0.2 percentage point and core PCE by 0.04 percentage point, while shaving roughly 0.1 percentage point off GDP growth.
Using the revised oil assumptions together with the latest consumer price index data, Goldman raised its forecast for headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation in December 2026 by 0.8 percentage point to 2.9%. Its core PCE projection for the same month was increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4%.
The bank's growth outlook also shifted: Goldman now expects 2026 GDP growth on a Q4-to-Q4 basis of 2.2%, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage point from its previous estimate.
Summary and implications
- Goldman has raised December 2026 headline PCE to 2.9% and core PCE to 2.4%.
- Brent crude is forecast to average $98 in March and April, easing to $71 by Q4 2026; a full-month disruption of Strait of Hormuz flows could see Brent at $110 in March and April.
- Projected 2026 Q4-to-Q4 GDP growth is 2.2%, down 0.3 percentage point versus the prior outlook.
Goldman also highlighted that geopolitical risk tends to suppress hiring and investment in ways that extend beyond the direct effects of higher oil prices. As a result, the bank now sees the unemployment rate peaking at 4.6%.
A steeper inflation path has implications for Federal Reserve policy timing. Goldman moved back its expectation for the first Fed rate cut to September from June, with a second cut expected in December. The bank noted, however, that materially weaker labour-market conditions could still bring cuts earlier than currently anticipated.
Key points
- Higher oil assumptions lift both headline and core December 2026 PCE forecasts.
- Stronger near-term oil prices and geopolitical risk reduce Goldman’s 2026 GDP growth projection.
- Fed rate-cut timing is delayed in Goldman’s baseline, now targeting September for the first cut and December for a second, subject to labour-market developments.
Risks and uncertainties
- Geopolitical escalation that disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would raise oil prices further and deepen inflationary pressure - impacting energy-intensive sectors and broader inflation measures.
- Persistently higher inflation could delay monetary easing, putting pressure on interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and corporate investment.
- Weaker hiring and lower investment linked to geopolitical risk could further slow GDP growth and raise unemployment beyond Goldman’s revised peak of 4.6%.
The revisions reflect Goldman’s updated oil-price trajectory and the bank’s quantified mapping from commodity moves to key macro variables. The combination of higher near-term energy prices and prolonged geopolitical uncertainty is central to the changed forecast for inflation, growth, labour markets, and the timing of monetary easing.