Economy February 26, 2026

Godongwana Says Growth, Not Just Fiscal Targets, Is Key to Luring Investment to South Africa

Finance minister underscores need for higher GDP expansion even as budget shows primary surpluses and a projected debt peak

By Hana Yamamoto
Godongwana Says Growth, Not Just Fiscal Targets, Is Key to Luring Investment to South Africa

South Africa’s finance minister argued that meeting fiscal metrics alone will not be sufficient to attract private investment, highlighting the need for stronger economic growth. The government’s budget indicates a third straight primary surplus and a projected peak in debt this year, while improved domestic demand and robust commodity prices have supported revenue. The minister said reforms are gaining traction with investors and that a legal fiscal anchor is being developed to secure long-term public finance sustainability.

Key Points

  • Budget projects a third consecutive primary surplus and a debt peak this year, improving public finance metrics - impacts government fiscal stability and sovereign risk perception.
  • Minister warns that numerical fiscal discipline alone will not attract investment; stronger economic growth is needed - implications for private sector capital allocation and fixed investment.
  • Government reform agenda and a proposed legal "fiscal anchor" aim to bolster long-term sustainability and pull private investment, potentially affecting sectors tied to fixed capital and commodities.

South Africa’s finance minister Enoch Godongwana said on Thursday that achieving fiscal targets by itself will not be enough to draw investment into the country; instead he stressed that higher economic growth is required.

His remarks came after the annual budget indicated the country is positioned for a third consecutive primary budget surplus, a situation where tax receipts exceed non-interest spending, and projected that government debt will peak this year.

"Managing these numerical targets alone is not going to be enough in the absence of growth," Godongwana said.

The minister noted that over the last decade South Africa’s economic growth has averaged under 1%, though activity picked up somewhat in the previous year and is expected to rise further to 1.6% in the current year. He attributed part of the improved fiscal outlook to stronger domestic demand and higher commodity prices, both of which have helped lift government revenue.

Godongwana said the government’s reform agenda has been received positively by investors and expressed the expectation that this reception will eventually result in increased fixed investment. "I think we’re in a better space now to achieve structural reforms and macroeconomic stability, ... I think all of those things will provide a pull factor for private sector investment," he said.

He also told lawmakers that the government is working on a legal "fiscal anchor" - a framework of rules intended to help ensure the sustainability of public finances over the longer term - and that more specifics are expected at a mid-term budget review scheduled for October or November this year.

Asked about his personal plans, Godongwana, who was appointed finance minister in 2021, said he currently had no reason not to complete his term, which runs to 2029.


Contextual notes

  • The budget shows a third straight primary surplus and a projected debt peak this year.
  • Economic growth averaged less than 1% over the past decade; projected growth is 1.6% this year.
  • Improved domestic demand and strong commodity prices have helped boost revenue.

Risks

  • Persistently low economic growth despite fiscal surpluses could fail to attract sufficient private investment - affecting fixed investment and overall job-creating sectors.
  • Uncertainty over the implementation and details of the proposed legal "fiscal anchor" and the mid-term budget review could delay confidence gains among investors - impacting markets sensitive to sovereign policy clarity.
  • A reliance on strong commodity prices to support revenue leaves fiscal outcomes exposed to commodity market swings - affecting mining, export sectors, and government receipts.

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