Economy February 25, 2026

First Solar Stock Drops After Company Lowers 2026 Sales Outlook Amid Policy and Permitting Headwinds

Manufacturing shift to U.S. finishing line and tariff impact cited as company readies for near-term volume constraints

By Marcus Reed
First Solar Stock Drops After Company Lowers 2026 Sales Outlook Amid Policy and Permitting Headwinds

First Solar's shares fell sharply in premarket trading after the company projected 2026 net sales below analyst expectations, citing uncertainty in the U.S. policy environment, permitting delays and tariff pressures. Management outlined a plan to open a U.S. finishing line in South Carolina to alleviate supply constraints for the Series 6 module and to better position shipments for the U.S. market.

Key Points

  • First Solar forecast 2026 net sales of $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion, below analysts' average estimate of $6 billion (LSEG).
  • Company expects a total tariff impact of $125 million to $135 million this year and is facing permitting delays under the current U.S. administration, affecting approvals for major projects.
  • To ease supply constraints on its Series 6 module, First Solar will open a U.S. finishing line in South Carolina in the fourth quarter to better balance freight, tariffs and domestic content for U.S. sales.

Shares of First Solar tumbled 16.7% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the solar-panel maker issued guidance for 2026 net sales that fell short of Wall Street forecasts. The company said on Tuesday it expects 2026 net sales to range from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion, versus an analysts' consensus of $6 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Company executives attributed the softer outlook in part to uncertainty tied to the current U.S. policy environment and delays in permitting under the administration, which has placed a pause on approvals for major projects while pursuing an energy agenda focused on oil, gas, coal and nuclear - a direction that diverges from prior green energy policies.

In a post-earnings call, First Solar management quantified an expected total tariff impact for the year at $125 million to $135 million. The company also reported that demand for its Series 6 solar module - the product aimed at utility-scale plants and manufactured in Malaysia and Vietnam - remains constrained.

To address those constraints and to optimize elements of the supply chain, First Solar said it will open a new U.S. finishing line in South Carolina, with production slated to begin in the fourth quarter. That finishing line will use a portion of the front-end output from the company's Southeast Asian facilities. Management framed the move as a way to optimize freight, tariff exposure and domestic content for incremental product sales into the U.S. domestic market.

Analysts offered mixed readings of the outlook. Christopher Dendrinos of RBC Capital Markets said the 2026 outlook is below expectations because of incremental curtailment activity, but he described the result as a clearing event that could set the company up for a volume recovery next year, assuming no additional tariffs are imposed. Citi analyst Vikram Bagri noted that "First Solar is well understood to be a 2027 story with several positive catalysts on the way."

The company's guidance and the policy-related headwinds pushed the stock sharply lower as investors weighed near-term revenue pressure against potential longer-term recovery scenarios tied to manufacturing adjustments and future catalysts.

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Risks

  • Policy and permitting uncertainty - the current U.S. administration's approach to energy and a freeze on approvals for major projects pose near-term risks to project timelines and sales, affecting the renewable energy sector and utilities.
  • Tariff exposure - the company expects a $125 million to $135 million tariff impact this year, which elevates cost and margin risks for manufacturers and supply chains reliant on international production.
  • Product demand constraints - limited demand for the Series 6 module constrains volume growth in the near term, creating operational and revenue uncertainty for the solar panel manufacturing and utility-scale project sectors.

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