Farmers across the United States and Canada are facing the prospect of a disrupted spring planting season as fertilizer availability tightens and prices have climbed by more than one-third following the war in Iran that has paralyzed key trade routes.
Industry representatives estimate that the U.S. currently lacks roughly 25% of the fertilizer typically required for spring planting, according to The Fertilizer Institute, which represents businesses across the U.S. fertilizer supply chain. In some years the U.S. has depended on imports for up to half of its urea fertilizer needs.
The conflict in Iran has interrupted flows of nitrogen fertilizer from the Persian Gulf. More than 30% of global exports of nitrogen fertilizers and related components such as sulfur normally transit the Strait of Hormuz, which is now effectively closed - creating a bottleneck for critical inputs.
An analyst cited by industry observers cautioned that the situation could worsen if cargoes originally bound for the U.S. are rerouted to other markets willing to pay higher prices. That dynamic would tighten availability for domestic growers and could elevate costs further.
Compounding the problem is the structure of the U.S. fertilizer distribution system. Much of the dealer network does not carry large inventories, leaving it exposed to abrupt supply interruptions. Where dealers hold minimal stock, a pause in shipments can translate quickly into a shortage at the farm level.
The timing of shipments is also a crucial constraint. Fertilizer loaded onto vessels in the Persian Gulf needs several weeks to reach U.S. ports, after which material typically moves onward by river barge, truck or train before arriving at fields. Because most fertilizer must be applied before crops begin to grow, any supplies that arrive after that application window cannot be used for the 2026 crop.
This week the American Farm Bureau Federation warned that fertilizer shortages could have implications for the U.S. food supply. Farmers, many of whom were already facing the prospect of another year of low profits or outright losses, now confront added uncertainty as planting season approaches.
With shipping routes still blocked and inventories lean, the coming weeks will determine whether available supplies can be stretched to meet planting schedules or whether delayed deliveries will render some fertilizer unusable for the 2026 crop cycle.