After roughly two-and-a-half years during which Federal Reserve officials largely agreed the next shift in monetary policy would be downward, the projections published on March 18 show at least one policymaker has moved toward anticipating a rate increase next year. That outlook remains in the minority: the bulk of the Fed's policy makers continue to expect the next adjustment will be a cut this year, as they projected in December.
The change in tone comes amid renewed geopolitical tension identified in the projections as the Iran War and the sharp rise in oil prices that has accompanied it, now stretching into a third week. Those developments, the Fed's materials indicate, have contributed to a more guarded view of the inflation outlook and have raised questions about whether five years of above-target inflation can be brought back to the Fed's 2% goal without a reversal in policy.
In a notable sign of shifting internal views, even the Fed official described as the most dovish now expects only a percentage-point of cuts this year, down from the 1.5 percentage points of easing that policymakers saw as of December. The official who dissented on the decision to keep the target range at 3.5% to 3.75% - Fed Governor Stephen Miran - has identified himself as the Fed's most dovish policymaker.
The distribution of views among the Fed's 19 policymakers on where the policy rate will stand at year-end is split. Seven see rates remaining unchanged at year-end. Seven others project a single quarter-point cut by year-end. The remaining five policymakers believe at least two quarter-point reductions will be necessary in the coming months.
Projections released alongside the policy statement show central bankers as a group have become more pessimistic about inflation since December. The median forecast for the personal consumption expenditures price index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - was revised up. Where December projections anticipated headline PCE inflation easing to 2.4% by year-end, the median view now puts that figure at 2.7%.
Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also nudged higher in the median forecast, rising to 2.7% from the 2.5% previously expected. By contrast, the unemployment outlook remained unchanged from December: the median projection keeps the unemployment rate at 4.4% at year-end, corresponding to the actual February reading.
Growth expectations were modestly strengthened. Median GDP growth for the year was lifted to 2.4%, up from the 2.3% projection published in December.
What this means
- Policymakers remain divided on the timing and magnitude of future rate moves, with most still anticipating cuts this year but at least one projecting a hike next year.
- Inflation forecasts have been revised upward in the median view, adding complexity to the Fed's task of returning inflation to the 2% target.
- Labor market and growth projections remain relatively stable, with unemployment seen at 4.4% and GDP growth nudged to 2.4% for the year.