The U.S. Supreme Court's recent judgment invalidating a significant part of President Trump's tariff framework has not been greeted as unambiguous good news on the Continent. Leaders of exporting industries from Italian wine producers to major German chemical companies are warning that the decision may have simply swapped one legal framework for another - and, in doing so, opened the door to renewed volatility for transatlantic trade.
Rather than serving as a clear-cut remedy, some business groups describe the ruling as the start of a potentially destabilizing shift. Industry observers caution about a possible "boomerang effect" in which commerce cools as buyers and sellers pause to assess the implications, potentially freezing orders and putting deals on hold that firms have spent months adjusting to.
Legal pivot, not an end to tariffs
A primary anxiety among European trade bodies concerns the change in the legal basis for U.S. tariffs. The court removed the ability to rely on emergency national-security powers under IEEPA to impose levies, but it did not close off the prospect of new tariffs entirely. Officials and trade groups say this shifts the likely battleground: the administration could pursue a "tariff pivot," invoking different statutes to reintroduce duties, with new measures possibly appearing as early as this summer.
Sector reactions across Europe
- Italian wine and agriculture - For Italy, where the United States was the single largest market for wine exports at 21.9 billion in 2024, the ruling has raised concerns about a regulatory vacuum. Paolo Castelletti of the UIV warned of a potential "freeze on orders" as producers, distributors and buyers await clarity.
- German chemicals - Wolfgang Grosse Entrup, head of the German chemical lobby VCI, representing firms including major producers, said the development does not signal a period of calm but rather "a new round of uncertainty." Chemical companies that adjusted sourcing and contractual terms over the last year may now face another cycle of change.
- French luxury and cosmetics - The French cosmetics association FEBEA characterized its stance as "very cautious," anticipating additional moves from the U.S. government that could affect high-end consumer products.
Logistics and supply-chain consequences
Supply-chain specialists argue that many of the structural responses to the tariffs are likely irreversible. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, noted a widespread trend toward "de-risking" that has led firms to shift supply chains away from regions exposed to heavy duties. For shippers and manufacturers that reconfigured logistics and sourcing to avoid 25% to 35% levies over the past year, the court victory may come too late to reverse those changes.
The question of refunds
The ruling does open the theoretical possibility of refunds for duties collected under the now-invalidated legal authority. Some estimates have put potential reimbursements as high as $175 billion. Still, European exporters are tempering expectations: President Trump promptly announced a new 10% global tariff and left reimbursement details ambiguous, suggesting that any attempt to recover past duties could involve prolonged legal proceedings and uncertainty over how and when funds might be returned.
Investor and market implications
Market participants and company investors are responding with cautious positioning. The immediate legal change reduces one visible source of tariff authority, but it also appears to usher in a potentially chaotic transition as the administration considers alternative legal routes to impose trade measures. The combination of frozen orders, permanent logistics shifts and doubts about refunds has left exporters and their investors balancing modest relief against the prospect of renewed policy turbulence.
Key points
- The Supreme Court ruling removed emergency national-security authority (IEEPA) for tariffs but did not end the trade conflict.
- European exporters, including Italian wine producers, German chemical firms and French cosmetics makers, expect heightened uncertainty and possible disruption to orders and deals.
- Logistics changes made to avoid last year's 25% to 35% levies are likely irreversible for many companies.
Risks and uncertainties
- New U.S. tariffs could reappear under alternative legal statutes as early as this summer, affecting exporters and importers.
- Any process to secure refunds - potentially up to $175 billion by some estimates - may be protracted and contested, with President Trump's announcement of a 10% global tariff adding ambiguity.
- Permanent shifts in supply chains and logistics strategies may raise costs and complicate planning for sectors like chemicals, agriculture and luxury goods.