The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its deposit rate at 2.00% through at least the end of this year, according to a Feb. 9-12 survey of economists. That outlook, if realised, would extend the central bank's longest uninterrupted stretch of steady borrowing costs since the period of negative interest rates.
Inflation in the euro area eased to 1.7% in January, marking a 16-month low and prompting some policymakers to caution that price growth could slow more than desired, requiring the ECB to be prepared to respond. Despite those concerns, the underlying economy has shown resilience, supporting the consensus view that policymakers will hold rates steady.
Economists completing the poll largely retained their prior expectations for stable policy, inflation near the ECB's 2% target and moderate growth for the euro zone. The bank left rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting last week, and the survey found 66 of 74 forecasters expect the ECB to remain on hold until at least 2027 - an outlook unchanged since October.
If the projection holds true, the run of unchanged rates would be the longest since the pandemic period, which itself followed nearly a decade of negative policy rates. Record inflation later forced rapid increases in policy rates, but the current environment has reversed to a more placid stance.
"The ECB is now in a sort of textbook perfect situation for a central bank .... It’s also very clear over the next six months, the ECB is either staying at 2% or cutting," said Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
On output, the euro zone economy expanded 0.3% in the final quarter of 2025 and is projected to grow at a similar pace through 2026, with a modest acceleration later in the year. The poll's forecasts call for GDP growth of 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, following a 1.5% increase last year. These growth projections have been broadly stable since August and are partly supported by optimism around infrastructure spending.
Inflation expectations in the survey show a short-term dip followed by a modest rebound. Inflation is projected to average 1.7% this quarter, rise to 1.9% in the next quarter and remain around that level through 2026. For the calendar year, inflation is forecast to average 1.8% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, a view that has been largely unchanged since March of last year.
"Our baseline assumes the domestic resilience will dominate the external vulnerabilities and the ECB will be able to stay on hold. But it’s fair to say that uncertainty around the path of monetary policy is high," said economists at Deutsche Bank.
Analysts also noted the potential disinflationary effect of a stronger euro. In trade-weighted terms - the measure the ECB monitors closely - the currency is not signalling acute weakness. Following a decline of roughly 1.6% from its recent peak above $1.20, a separate poll found the euro is expected to recover those losses over the coming year.
Looking ahead, the survey paints a picture of the ECB keeping policy steady while monitoring inflation dynamics, currency moves and external vulnerabilities. Forecasters emphasised that while domestic economic resilience supports a hold, uncertainty around future monetary policy remains elevated and will hinge on incoming data.