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Economy March 4, 2026

ECB economists find AI-using firms in euro zone are more likely to expand payrolls

Short-term survey evidence suggests investment in artificial intelligence correlates with hiring, though longer-term effects remain uncertain

By Derek Hwang
ECB economists find AI-using firms in euro zone are more likely to expand payrolls

A recent blog post by two European Central Bank staff economists reports that firms in the euro zone which make substantial use of artificial intelligence are, on average, more likely to increase staffing in the near term. The finding is drawn from the ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises and stands in contrast to other studies that warn of job losses over longer horizons.

Key Points

  • ECB survey evidence indicates firms in the euro zone that make significant use of AI are more likely to hire in the near term.
  • Companies planning AI investments report positive expectations for future employment growth, regardless of the planned investment level.
  • The findings contrast with other studies, such as Germany's Ifo Institute, which report a substantial share of firms expecting AI-driven job losses over a five-year horizon.

The European Central Bank published a blog post on Wednesday highlighting survey evidence that artificial intelligence (AI) may be associated with increased hiring among companies in the euro zone rather than widespread job cuts.

The analysis draws on the ECB's Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises, which found that firms reporting significant use of AI were likelier to plan additions to their workforce in the near future. As the blog notes, "In other words, AI-intensive firms tend, on average, to hire rather than fire." The post also states that it does not necessarily represent the ECB's official view.

Authors of the blog - identified as two ECB staff economists - report that companies intending to invest in AI also tend to hold optimistic expectations for employment growth. The economists write: "This is true regardless of the level of planned AI investment and suggests that a pause in hiring due to investment in AI technology is also unlikely over the next year."

Those findings are presented against a backdrop of contrasting evidence. The blog cites a recent study from Germany's Ifo Institute showing that more than a quarter of German companies expect AI to lead to job reductions within the next five years. The ECB blog cautions that its survey captures a shorter time horizon, and that survey instruments covering longer periods have produced more pessimistic responses.

The ECB economists note that the employment picture could alter over a longer stretch of time, particularly if AI begins to substantially change production processes. They emphasize that the survey's shorter horizon limits conclusions about more distant employment effects.

Overall, the blog frames the current results as indicative of near-term hiring momentum among AI-active firms in the euro zone while leaving open the possibility of differing outcomes over multi-year horizons.

Risks

  • The survey captures a short-term horizon - employment outcomes could diverge over longer periods if AI significantly alters production processes (impacts: manufacturing, industrial firms, and labor markets).
  • Survey findings differ across studies - contrasting results introduce uncertainty for investors and policymakers assessing AI's net effect on jobs (impacts: technology sector, corporate hiring forecasts).

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