FRANKFURT, March 4 - A blog post by two European Central Bank staff economists argues that, for now, the growing adoption of artificial intelligence by firms across the euro zone appears to be associated with net job creation rather than job destruction.
Economists and industry observers have debated whether AI will displace white-collar workers. A recent survey cited in the public discussion by Germany’s Ifo Institute found that more than a quarter of German firms expect that AI will lead to job cuts within the next five years.
By contrast, the ECB’s own Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises reports that companies making significant use of AI are more likely to plan additional hiring in the near term. "In other words, AI-intensive firms tend, on average, to hire rather than fire," the blog states, while noting that the post does not necessarily represent the official view of the ECB.
The blog also highlights that firms planning to invest in AI report more positive expectations for future employment growth. "This is true regardless of the level of planned AI investment and suggests that a pause in hiring due to investment in AI technology is also unlikely over the next year," the authors write.
At the same time, the ECB staff economists caution that the outlook could shift over a longer horizon. They note that many of the surveys expressing a gloomier view on employment tend to cover longer timeframes than the ECB’s question does. The authors say the employment picture may change once AI begins to significantly transform production processes.
In sum, the analysis in the ECB blog points to a near-term association between AI adoption and workforce expansion among firms in the euro zone, while leaving open the possibility that broader and deeper technological change could alter that relationship in the future.
Methodological note - The blog draws on the ECB’s Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises and contrasts its findings with other surveys that inquire about longer-term expectations. The post was written by two ECB staff economists and the language in it does not necessarily reflect the formal position of the ECB.