U.S. tariff revenue has eased over recent months, renewing questions about whether higher trade barriers are beginning to cool import activity. Treasury customs receipts and Department of Homeland Security daily deposit numbers - which move closely with official totals - both show an approximate 11% decline in duties since October.
At its high point in October, annualized tariff collections were running near $376 billion, according to estimates cited by UBS economist Arend Kapteyn. By the end of January that annualized pace had moderated to about $335 billion.
Despite the drop in headline revenue, Kapteyn warned against interpreting the trend as a straightforward signal of weaker trade. Several factors muddy the picture, beginning with well-established seasonal patterns. Imports commonly fall in December and January after retailers complete most of their holiday inventory replenishment earlier in the year.
To account for such seasonality, Kapteyn examined duties as a share of estimated imports - an effective tariff rate - which exhibits a much smaller decline than the raw revenue figures suggest. That adjustment points to a less dramatic move in the burden of tariffs relative to import volumes.
Trade flows themselves have shown volatility rather than a persistent deceleration. Recent U.S. trade data featured sharp swings in the trade deficit as import volumes rebounded in some months, notably in capital goods, after an earlier narrowing. Those month-to-month shifts contribute to an uneven revenue profile.
Policy changes have also had a measurable impact on collections. In November, the fentanyl-related IEEPA tariff rate for China was reduced by 10 percentage points, from 20% to 10%. Kapteyn noted that this single adjustment could lower the effective tariff rate by about one percentage point. Smaller exemptions extended to other countries added further downward pressure on statutory rates.
Port activity data point to additional complexity. In late 2025, cargo volumes at major U.S. hubs showed a noticeable softening, and logistics executives have cited both tariff effects and timing around seasonal shipping patterns as contributing factors. These operational and timing issues can shift when duties are recorded, affecting short-term revenue readings.
When seasonality, policy shifts and port dynamics are considered together, the recent fall in customs receipts appears difficult to attribute solely to a reduction in import demand. As Kapteyn put it:
"Taking all this into account, it is not yet clear that tariff collection is declining in response to weaker import demand."
In sum, while customs duties have clearly fallen from October levels, the mix of seasonal timing, changes in statutory rates and volatile trade flows complicates any simple interpretation of the revenue decline.