Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said Friday that February's disappointing employment figures cast doubt on recent hopes that the U.S. labor market was settling down.
Speaking in an interview on CNBC, Daly said recent optimism about labor-market steadiness may have been premature. She emphasized the need for vigilance going forward, noting uncertainty within the latest report.
"The hopes that the labor market was steadying, maybe that was too much, and we really have to keep our eye on the labor market," Daly said.
Official Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday showed U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate increased to 4.4%. The BLS noted that the results reflected, in part, disruptive winter weather and a fall in health care employment tied to strike activity.
Daly warned policymakers against overinterpreting any single month of data. She said internal details of the report make it hard to draw definitive conclusions about the underlying trend in labor-market strength.
At the same time, Daly pointed to broader policy challenges facing the central bank. She said the Fed continues to confront risks on both sides of its dual mandate and cited persistent inflation as a concern, noting that inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target for five years.
"The piece I'm worried about is the labor market maybe a little weaker than we have seen so far, but I've been worried about that since last summer," Daly said.
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. Market participants expect the central bank to keep rates on hold again when officials convene later this month. The article's data also references a policy development indicating the Fed cut rates three times at the end of 2025 to support weak hiring in the labor market.
For sectors, the report highlighted a direct hit to health care payrolls due to strike-related reductions in employment. Financial markets and interest-rate-sensitive sectors may also be affected as policymakers weigh incoming labor and inflation data when deciding their next moves.
Context and implications - Daly's remarks underscore the tension policymakers face in interpreting volatile monthly labor-market readings while managing persistent inflation. Her caution about single-month moves and the specific mention of reduced health care employment point to areas where ongoing data will be important to watch.