WASHINGTON, Feb 20 - Underlying U.S. inflation picked up more than economists expected in December, and early signs point to an additional pickup in January that could reinforce market odds that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates before June.
The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy - the so-called core PCE price index - rose 0.4% in December after an unrevised 0.2% gain in November. Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting a 0.3% increase for core PCE in December.
On an annual basis, core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% in the 12 months through December, up from 2.8% in November. The core PCE measure is one of the gauges the U.S. central bank monitors in relation to its 2% inflation objective. The December figures were published as part of the advance gross domestic product report for the fourth quarter.
Services inflation and volatile subcomponents
Last week’s Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a moderate uptick in January but flagged some persistence in services inflation. Economists have also pointed to a large move in legal services in January that had an outsized effect on core measures.
"This category, which the BLS does not publish, but can be backed out, registered a 12.0% month-on-month increase in January, which alone is worth about 10 basis points on core PCE inflation," said Pooja Sriram, an economist at Barclays. "That said, this tends to be a very volatile category, with very little forward-looking inference."
Economists have estimated that core PCE inflation could rise as much as 0.4% on a monthly basis in January, which would correspond to a 3.1% year-on-year gain. Those projections could be revised after the Producer Price Index report scheduled for next Friday.
January’s PCE inflation data is slated for release on March 13. The publication schedule for the reports has been affected by last year’s government shutdown, which delayed the releases.
Overall PCE and consumer spending
The headline PCE price index increased 0.4% in December following a 0.2% rise in November. On a year-over-year basis, PCE inflation increased 2.9% in December after a 2.8% gain in November.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, advanced 0.4% in December after rising by the same margin in November. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased 0.1% in December, a modest real gain that sets consumption on a slow growth trajectory heading into the first quarter.
Context and timing
The December core and headline PCE readings, the reported persistence in some services sectors and the potential for January to show further increases together inform expectations about the timing of policy easing. Analysts and markets are watching the upcoming PPI report and the March 13 PCE release for confirmation of the January trend.