Citi’s biweekly survey of economists released today records modest upward adjustments to Mexico’s inflation outlook and fine-tunes other macroeconomic projections for 2026 and 2027.
The median forecast for the headline consumer price index now stands at 4.35% year-over-year for 2026, up from 4.30% in the May 20 survey. For 2027 the inflation projection was raised to 3.90% from the prior 3.80% estimate.
On the measure of underlying price pressures, economists left the 2026 core inflation projection unchanged at 4.20%. The core estimate for 2027 edged up to 3.85% from the previous survey's figure.
Growth expectations also shifted in the latest poll. Survey participants revised their forecast for Mexico’s GDP growth in 2026 to 1.20%, an increase from the 1.10% projection reported in the May 20 survey. The outlook for 2027 remained unchanged at 1.80%.
On monetary policy, the participating economists maintained the view that Mexico’s benchmark overnight interest rate will remain at 6.50% through both 2026 and 2027.
The peso exchange rate projections saw a mixed set of adjustments. The forecast for 2026 remained at 18.00 per dollar, unchanged from the May 20 survey. For 2027, the projection strengthened to 18.50 per dollar, improving from 18.58 in the previous round of the survey.
These changes reflect the latest median responses from the surveyed economists and replicate the numerical adjustments reported between the May 20 survey and the current biweekly release. The survey provides a snapshot of professional forecasters' expectations for headline and core inflation, economic growth, the policy rate, and the peso exchange rate for the next two years.
The figures reported in this release are the central data points from Citi’s most recent biweekly poll; no additional forecasts or commentary were included beyond the revised median estimates cited above.