Chinese firms are moving aggressively into foreign-exchange hedging, seeking shelter from currency swings after a sustained rise in the yuan eroded the value of dollar holdings for many exporters and recent geopolitical tensions heightened volatility. Market activity has reached record levels and, according to people familiar with the matter, has been supported in part by regulatory encouragement.
Short-term risk aversion has pushed many investors and market participants back into the dollar, interrupting an 11-month run of yuan appreciation. But corporate hedging activity is reshaping onshore flows and may have longer-term effects: as exporters cut dollar exposure, the resulting currency flows could further support the yuan, particularly amid a strong export cycle.
Surging demand for derivatives
Forwards - a widely used tool that lets firms lock in foreign-exchange prices in advance to offset exposure - have seen exceptional volumes. Net selling of foreign currencies via forwards rose to a record $39 billion in January. This followed an outright net selling of dollars to Chinese banks that reached $100 billion in December and a further $80 billion in January.
China's exports jumped 22% in January and February, a pace that puts the economy on track to exceed last year's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus. That export strength is important context: exporters typically invoice in dollars and have historically retained most dollar proceeds, converting to yuan only as needed for domestic costs. A stronger yuan reduces the local currency value of those dollar holdings, creating an incentive to sell dollars or to hedge the exposure.
How corporate behavior is shifting
The combination of a rising yuan and heightened volatility has prompted firms to alter cash management and treasury strategies. Where some companies previously parked idle dollar balances in Hong Kong wealth management products to capture gains as the dollar strengthened, they are now converting receipts more quickly to yuan and increasing use of hedging instruments.
Examples from corporate filings and executives illustrate the impact. Beijing Ultrapower Software attributed part of a 28% decline in its 2025 profit to the yuan's strength. Suzhou Junchuang Auto Technologies cited the currency's appreciation as a factor behind a 31% drop in annual earnings. Other firms that disclosed foreign-exchange losses include robot maker Ninebot, Shenzhen Hello Tech Energy and Shenzhen Hui Chuang Da Technology.
Huizhou Sanchuang Technology, a maker of cooling equipment, described a marked change in approach. Michael Don, deputy financial officer, said the company used to keep excess cash in Hong Kong wealth management products but now settles dollar receipts as soon as they are received.
Market views and feedback loops
Macroeconomic forecasters and market economists have noted a notable shift in sentiment toward the yuan. Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING in Hong Kong, said market views have undergone a large transformation over the past year - moving from a dominant bias expecting yuan depreciation to one that largely expects appreciation. That consensus around a stronger yuan, in turn, encourages hedging that can further bolster yuan gains in spot trading.
That dynamic creates a delicate balancing act for policymakers seeking to avoid a one-sided market. Two sources said authorities have encouraged both importers and exporters to reduce currency exposure by using hedging tools.
Regulatory nudges and window guidance
Over recent months, the foreign-exchange regulator and the central bank have asked some banks to promote hedging products and to raise corporate clients' hedging ratios, making such ratios part of regulatory health assessments for lenders, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
Those informal requests, commonly referred to as window guidance, included instructions to banks in a coastal province to lift corporate hedging ratios to roughly 40%, one of the people said. Nationally, the corporate hedging ratio stands at 30%, an increase of eight percentage points from 2020, Li Bin, the deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said at a media briefing in January.
Li said regulators will "continue to strengthen exchange-rate risk management services ... supporting businesses in better focusing on their core operations and mitigating risks." People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng noted at the National People's Congress that a 30% rate of using the yuan in cross-border trade, combined with other factors, means some 60% of trade is relatively less affected by exchange-rate fluctuations. "This ratio is projected to increase further this year," he said.
The central bank declined to comment and SAFE did not immediately respond to inquiries.
Rising activity in options and short-dated markets
Trading volumes have spiked recently and there has been a noticeable rotation in short-dated options positioning toward the dollar. At the same time, companies and other market participants have moved to secure protections from potential yuan appreciation using a mix of forwards, options and swaps.
D-Union, a risk-management consultancy, reported that a record 1,409 listed Chinese companies disclosed currency-risk hedging measures in 2025, an increase of 13.5% from a year earlier. D-Union added that roughly 300 companies had already announced forex hedging plans this year.
Liu Wencai, founder of D-Union, said firms are turning to these instruments to protect corporate value, particularly as companies expand overseas.
Policy changes and geopolitical headwinds
Two recent developments have helped slow the yuan's appreciation. First, the war in the Middle East has unsettled market expectations and elevated risk. Second, adjustments by the central bank to forward reserve requirements have made selling dollars in the forward market slightly more expensive. Together, these factors have paused the currency's rally.
Still, companies have large accumulated dollar positions: about $1 trillion in onshore dollar deposits and around $2 trillion in overseas dollar assets, according to Soochow Securities estimates. If even a fraction of those balances were hedged or repatriated in response to uncertainty, it could represent a significant change in flows within China's foreign-exchange market.
Implications for markets and firms
The shift toward deeper hedging practices is altering the supply-demand dynamics in China’s currency markets. Exporters' decisions to sell dollars or hedge currency exposure add upward pressure on the yuan. At the same time, encouragement from regulators for higher hedging ratios and greater use of derivatives is increasing liquidity and participation in these markets.
For individual firms, the move to hedge is about protecting profit margins and stabilizing financial results in the face of currency appreciation. For banks and the broader financial system, higher hedging ratios form part of regulatory assessments and may change balance-sheet considerations for lenders dealing with corporate clients.
Conclusion
Chinese companies are rapidly adopting foreign-exchange hedging tools as a response to a stronger yuan and a more volatile global environment. Record forward selling, rising hedging disclosures among listed firms, and regulators' encouragement to increase hedging ratios together point to a structural shift in how exporters and importers manage currency risk. While recent policy tweaks and geopolitical events have paused the yuan’s rally, the scale of corporate dollar holdings means that even partial responses - including hedging and repatriation - could materially alter capital flows and currency market dynamics.