Beijing, March 10 - China's foreign trade momentum intensified at the start of 2026, official customs figures show, as outbound shipments and inbound purchases both posted sizable gains in the January-February window.
In U.S. dollar terms, export values climbed 21.8% over the two-month period, a sharp acceleration from the 6.6% increase recorded in December. That pace also stood well above the median forecast in a poll, which called for 7.1% growth. The robust rise in selling abroad pushed China's trade surplus to $213.6 billion for the period, substantially higher than the $169.21 billion surplus logged a year earlier. Forecasters in that poll had expected a surplus of $179.6 billion.
Imports rose strongly as well, expanding 19.8% in January-February compared with a 5.7% gain in December. Together, the jump in both exports and imports points to intense cross-border trade activity at the start of the year.
Policy signals from Beijing underline continued emphasis on external demand. Premier Li Qiang last week said the government would seek an economic growth target of 4.5%-5% for 2026, a step down from last year's 5% target that was met in part because of a roughly one-fifth surge in the trade surplus. While the government's next five-year plan included a pledge for a "notable" increase in household consumption, the document offered limited detail on the measures needed to rebalance growth decisively toward domestic demand.
Industry conditions help explain why exports remain attractive. Recent factory activity data for February indicated that many Chinese firms are still struggling to make profits at home even as overseas orders have improved. That divergence - weaker domestic margins and firmer foreign demand - reinforces incentives for manufacturers and policymakers to lean on exports heading into 2026.
Geopolitical dynamics have also shaped trade flows. U.S. President Donald Trump's renewed 2025 tariff campaign appears to have had only a limited impact on China's industrial momentum. Manufacturers have shifted shipments toward markets in Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America to help offset lost U.S. demand. At the same time, a growing number of governments are contemplating trade restrictions similar to Washington's amid concerns that China's industrial overcapacity and deflationary pressures are sending surplus goods into world markets and threatening local manufacturing sectors.
Diplomatic attention remains high: President Trump is expected to visit Beijing later this month for a leaders' summit, but prospects for a substantive de-escalation look slim, with both sides appearing prepared to resume trade hostilities if they deem it necessary.
Implications: The latest trade figures keep China tethered to export-led growth even as officials talk about raising household spending. For markets and sectors, the developments have direct relevance for manufacturers, export-oriented industries and global trade flows.