Economy February 17, 2026

Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee Says Multiple Rate Cuts Could Be on Table in 2026 If Inflation Returns to 2%

Chicago Fed president signals conditional path to policy easing, highlights services inflation and tariff-driven price pressure

By Ajmal Hussain
Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee Says Multiple Rate Cuts Could Be on Table in 2026 If Inflation Returns to 2%

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC that the Fed could enact "several more" interest rate cuts in 2026 if inflation demonstrably returns to the central bank's 2% target. He cautioned that recent weak headline inflation partly reflected base effects and stressed services inflation remains "not tame," while noting goods with greater tariff exposure have seen larger price increases. Goolsbee called a 3% policy rate a "loose" estimate of neutral and said policymakers need clear evidence from upcoming data before cutting rates. He also voiced personal support for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh.

Key Points

  • Goolsbee said the Fed could pursue "several more" rate cuts in 2026 if inflation is demonstrably on a path to the 2% target - impacts interest-rate sensitive sectors including banking and fixed income.
  • He cautioned that recent headline inflation was partly influenced by base effects and that services inflation remains "not tame" - relevant to consumer services and labor-intensive sectors.
  • Goolsbee noted goods with higher tariffed content have seen larger price increases and described a 3% policy rate as a "loose" estimate of neutral - implications for trade-exposed goods and overall policy calibration.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that the central bank may be able to implement "several more" rate reductions in 2026, provided inflation continues to move toward the Fed's 2% objective.

Speaking in an interview on CNBC, Goolsbee urged caution about interpreting a recent weak consumer price report as proof of durable disinflation. He said headline inflation was in part depressed by base effects, and he warned that services inflation remains "not tame."

"If we can show that we’re on path to 2% inflation, I still think there’s several more rate cuts that can happen in 2026," Goolsbee said. "But we’ve got to see it" in incoming economic data, he added, emphasizing that policymakers are seeking evidence that price pressures are sustainably easing before moving forward with additional easing steps.

Goolsbee also pointed to differences across sectors of the consumer price index, saying goods with higher tariffed content have tended to register larger price increases. On the broader question of where neutral policy might sit, he described a policy rate of 3% as a "loose" estimate of the neutral rate.

The Chicago Fed president reiterated that the Fed wants clear confirmation from economic readings that inflation is on track to the 2% goal before enacting further cuts, framing prospective easing as conditional on data rather than pre-committed policy.

On the matter of leadership at the Fed, Goolsbee expressed his support for President Biden's nominee for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, saying he has known Warsh for many years and is a "big fan" based on their work together during the Great Financial Crisis.


Track Fed decisions and key economic data in real time on InvestingPro - now 50% off.

Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 2 out of 3 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 88% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar? Pick Stocks with AI.

Risks

  • Further Fed easing in 2026 is conditional on incoming data showing sustained disinflation - uncertainty could affect interest-rate dependent markets like bonds and mortgage-sensitive sectors.
  • Services inflation remaining "not tame" poses a risk to the outlook for core inflation and may limit near-term policy easing - this particularly affects sectors with large labor or service components.
  • Base effects that have temporarily pulled down headline inflation could reverse, creating uncertainty over whether recent weakness in CPI reflects a stable trend or a statistical distortion - impacts forecasts and market expectations.

More from Economy

Bessent: Administration to Shift Tariff Strategy After Supreme Court Ruling Feb 20, 2026 Trump Repeats Call for Much Lower Interest Rates, Criticizes Fed Chair Feb 20, 2026 White House to Apply 10% Global Tariff for 150 Days, Citing Trade Act Authority Feb 20, 2026 Trump directs temporary 10% global tariff under Trade Act after Supreme Court rebuke Feb 20, 2026 Trump Announces Plan for 'Even Stronger' Tariff Actions After Supreme Court Setback Feb 20, 2026