Economy March 12, 2026

CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Rules for Prediction-Market Event Contracts

Agency issues Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to solicit feedback on how existing statutes and regulations should apply to prediction markets

By Leila Farooq
CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Rules for Prediction-Market Event Contracts

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to collect public input on potential regulatory changes for event contracts traded on prediction markets. The notice asks stakeholders to weigh in on how core statutory principles and Commission rules should apply, which types of contracts might be contrary to the public interest, and cost-benefit considerations. Written comments are due within 45 days of the notice's Federal Register publication.

Key Points

  • CFTC issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to collect public input on event contracts traded on prediction markets - impacts derivatives and markets sectors.
  • The notice asks for views on applying statutory core principles and Commission regulations to prediction markets - relevant to legal and regulatory frameworks.
  • Comments will inform potential future agency action, which may include formal rulemaking; submissions must be filed within 45 days of Federal Register publication.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has published an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to solicit public feedback on possible amendments or new regulatory approaches for event contracts that trade on prediction markets.

Chairman Michael S. Selig described the move as part of the Commission's effort to encourage responsible innovation across derivatives markets. According to the notice, the process seeks to lay the groundwork for rulemaking that rests on a rational interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act, and to reaffirm that the CFTC will assert exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

The ANPR asks market participants and other interested parties to provide views on a set of focused topics. Among them are how the statutory core principles and existing Commission regulations should be applied to prediction markets, and which forms of event contracts - if any - could be viewed as contrary to the public interest and therefore subject to prohibition.

In addition to questions about permissible contract types, the notice requests commentary on cost-benefit factors related to prediction markets. The Commission intends to use the submissions to inform any potential future action, which may include the development of formal rules.

Stakeholders wishing to contribute must submit written comments within 45 days of the notice's publication in the Federal Register. The CFTC has made its Public Comments Portal available as the channel for electronic submissions.


Context and next steps

The information collected through this notice will be used by the Commission to help determine whether and how to proceed with regulatory changes pertaining to prediction-market event contracts. The ANPR represents an early, information-gathering phase; any subsequent agency action would be guided by the comments and materials received.

Members of the public and market participants should note the 45-day comment deadline tied to the notice's Federal Register publication and use the CFTC Public Comments Portal to file their responses.

Risks

  • Certain types of event contracts could be identified as contrary to the public interest and subject to prohibition - this uncertainty affects participants in prediction markets and derivatives trading.
  • The outcome of any future rulemaking is undetermined - market participants face regulatory uncertainty until the Commission completes its review and any subsequent actions.
  • The 45-day window for written comments after Federal Register publication may limit the amount of stakeholder input received - affecting the breadth of perspectives considered.

More from Economy

U.S. Treasury Secretary to Hold Paris Talks with Chinese Vice Premier This Weekend Mar 12, 2026 Middle East conflict disrupts HSBC and Standard Chartered operations, tests Gulf growth strategy Mar 12, 2026 Bank of Canada Poised to Keep Policy Rate at 2.25% as Geopolitics and Oil Prices Elevate Uncertainty Mar 12, 2026 CFTC Opens Formal Rulemaking Process for Prediction Markets Mar 12, 2026 Singapore to seek clarification from USTR over trade data and Section 301 probe Mar 12, 2026