Top investment houses surveyed expect the S&P 500 to continue its advance through 2026, citing heavy investor allocations to artificial intelligence-related names and a market priced for lower borrowing costs.
According to the poll, the benchmark index is forecast to reach about 7,490 by the end of 2026, an increase of nearly 12% from current levels. That outcome would represent a fourth consecutive year of gains if 2025 finishes higher.
Bank strategists in the poll point to AI momentum and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts as key forces that could sustain the bull market. At the same time, they highlight a trio of possible catalysts for market interruptions - persistent inflation, stretched valuations and tariff tensions - any of which could precipitate corrections.
Forecasts for stocks:
| Brokerage | 2026 S&P 500 index target |
|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 7,100 |
| Societe Generale | 7,300 |
| Barclays | 7,400 |
| UBS Global Research | 7,500 |
| Jefferies | 7,500 |
| HSBC | 7,500 |
| J.P.Morgan | 7,500 |
| Canaccord Genuity | 7,500 |
| BNP Paribas | 7,500 |
| Goldman Sachs | 7,600 |
| Citigroup | 7,700 |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 7,700 |
| Evercore ISI | 7,750 |
| Morgan Stanley | 7,800 |
| Seaport Research Partners | 7,800 |
| Deutsche Bank | 8,000 |
| Oppenheimer Asset Management | 8,100 |
| Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 7,400-7,600 |
Real GDP Growth forecasts:
| Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | EURO AREA | UK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| Barclays | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
| HSBC | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| J.P.Morgan | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| BofA Global Research | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| UBS Global Research | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Peel Hunt | - | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| TD Securities | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
Across reports, projected global GDP growth ranges roughly from 2.4% to 3.3% in 2026, reflecting a general view of resilient economic activity.
Two housekeeping notes included with the forecasts clarify organizational distinctions: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are separate divisions within the UBS Group, and Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank.
Context provided by respondents
Respondents attribute the projected market advance to concentrated flows into AI-related equities and an expectation that Federal Reserve rate reductions will ease financing conditions. At the same time, they signaled that the environment is not without vulnerabilities: inflation that remains elevated, high market valuations and tariff frictions were all cited as potential triggers of market disruptions.
The consensus view among the surveyed strategists is for continued upside in U.S. equities alongside moderate global growth, but with notable caveats tied to macro and geopolitical risks.
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