Bank of America Securities analysts say several countries stand to be relatively better off under the new U.S. global tariffs that took effect at 10% after a recent Supreme Court ruling curtailed the administration’s earlier reciprocal surcharge program.
The tariffs were communicated via the U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s messaging service and started at 10% at midnight on Tuesday. That level is lower than the 15% figure President Donald Trump indicated he favored after the court found that his use of emergency economic powers to impose broad surcharges was unlawful. The White House is reportedly working on a formal order that would raise the rate to 15%.
These duties are being imposed under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act and, by statute, will remain in force for 150 days unless Congress acts. At the end of that window, lawmakers will need to decide whether the tariffs should continue.
The uncertain legal and political backdrop has left the status of past deals between the United States and other trading partners unsettled. Some countries have reportedly begun to reassess whether previously negotiated arrangements still stand in the wake of the Supreme Court decision. In response, President Trump warned trading partners in a social media post not to "play games."
In a note, BofA analysts Carlos Capistran and Pedro Diaz assessed which nations could see shifts in the effective tariffs applied to their exports to the United States.
They pointed to Brazil as a country that would experience a marked reduction in the U.S. tariff it faces if the global levy remains at the 10% level. Before the court ruling, Brazil had been subject to a 40% tariff rate.
Canada and Mexico are also identified as relative beneficiaries. Goods that meet the rules in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement are exempt from the new global duty framework, which the analysts said lowers effective tariffs for those two countries to roughly 2% for Canada and 4% for Mexico.
BofA also listed Venezuela, El Salvador, Guatemala and Ecuador as additional beneficiaries because recent bilateral agreements shield substantial portions of their exports from the U.S. duties.
Conversely, the analysts flagged Colombia, Panama and Peru as potential losers if the administration moves to increase the Section 122 tariff to 15%. Those three countries had previously been subject to a 10% reciprocal tariff and could face less favorable treatment under a higher global rate.
Implications: The interim tariffs and any subsequent change in their level will affect export flows and market access for the listed countries. The 150-day statutory window creates a defined period of uncertainty during which Congress will have a say on the tariffs' future.