Overview
A Bank of America analyst report projects that artificial intelligence has the potential to increase global economic growth by up to 1 percentage point per year over the next decade, moving aggregate growth from about 3.5% to roughly 4.5%. The underlying premise is that AI is delivering meaningful productivity improvements across specific tasks and activities, but those gains have not yet fully translated into economy-wide output.
Task-level gains versus macro outcomes
The report documents significant productivity improvements at the level of individual tasks. It cites estimates that software development productivity has risen by as much as 55% where AI tools are applied, and that writing-related tasks have seen productivity increases on the order of 40%.
Yet despite these pronounced company- and task-level advances, the report finds that overall economic productivity growth remains muted. Economy-wide productivity is currently increasing at roughly 0.1% per year. The report attributes this gap to a range of frictions that limit the pace at which AI-driven efficiencies diffuse through firms and sectors.
Adoption rates and regional differences
AI adoption is reported to be expanding: overall, 64% of companies across industries were using AI in 2025. Adoption varies by region. North America led deployment at 70% of companies actively using AI, compared with 65% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and 63% in Asia-Pacific.
The analysis emphasizes that stronger adopters - specifically the United States and China - are likely to capture gains earlier than Europe and many emerging markets. Differences in adoption speed, regulatory approaches, and organizational readiness are cited as potential drivers of persistent productivity gaps between regions.
Potential upside and the mechanics of broader impact
The report notes that AI could ultimately have a larger effect than prior technological advances because it can be applied across a wider swath of economic activity. As models improve and costs decline, the Bank of America analysis suggests productivity gains could be up to ten times larger than current estimates. The report also highlights AI's capacity to boost the productivity of innovation itself by accelerating idea generation and research, which could move economies beyond a one-time uplift to a sustained increase in long-term productivity growth.
Monetary and investment implications
Crucially, the report links faster AI-driven productivity gains to higher neutral interest rates in leading economies, reasoning that stronger productivity would raise investment demand. Conversely, slower adopters are expected to see smaller increases - if any - in long-term interest rates.
Concluding observation
The Bank of America analysis presents a picture in which AI has already delivered substantial task-level efficiency gains but where translation to macroeconomic performance depends on adoption, workforce readiness, regulatory environments, and infrastructure. The magnitude and timing of broader gains remain contingent on overcoming those frictions.