LONDON, Feb 27 - Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Friday that the central bank should not be too reassured by future falls in headline inflation where they are driven by one-off factors, as underlying price pressures persist.
The Bank of England forecasts that consumer price inflation will fall back to close to its 2% target in April, a movement the BoE expects to be driven in part by cuts in regulated energy prices taking effect and by the statistical drop-out of regulated price rises that occurred a year earlier.
Pill delivered a caution that the disinflation story is not yet complete, and that temporary fiscal or regulatory changes can make headline rates look more favorable than the broader underlying trend warrants. He said: "I think it is ... important to recognise that the (disinflation) process is still incomplete. We shouldn’t be lulled into a false sense of security by movements in headline inflation which are partly driven by fiscal events or other events, Pill said in a webinar hosted by Britain’s Society of Professional Economists and Elgin Advisory. "Underlying inflation is probably still running above target," he added.
The remarks came during a webinar hosted by Britain’s Society of Professional Economists and Elgin Advisory, where Pill underlined the distinction between headline measures, which can be affected by discrete policy changes, and the more persistent components of inflation that inform monetary policy decisions.
Separately in the session, attention turned briefly to investor considerations for the year ahead. The discussion noted that identifying strong investment opportunities in 2026 begins with higher-quality data rather than intuition alone, and described a product, InvestingPro+, that combines institutional-grade data with AI-powered insights designed to be accessible without a finance PhD. The presentation cautioned that such tools do not guarantee winners but can help surface more potential opportunities more often, concluding with the prompt: "Ask WarrenAI, then decide."
Key takeaways
- Headline inflation is likely to fall close to 2% in April due to cuts in regulated energy prices and the removal of last year’s regulated price rises from the year-on-year comparison.
- Pill warned that the disinflation process is incomplete and that underlying inflation probably remains above the BoE’s target.
- Investor guidance in the session highlighted an emphasis on institutional-grade data and AI tools to help identify investment opportunities, while noting such tools are not guarantees.
Risks and uncertainties
- Temporary fiscal or regulatory events could cause headline inflation to fall even if underlying price pressures persist - affecting consumer-facing sectors and energy markets.
- If underlying inflation stays above target, monetary policy may need to remain restrictive for longer, with implications for financial markets and borrowing costs.
- Reliance on short-term drops in headline rates may mask persistent inflation in core components, complicating central bank decision-making and market expectations.