LONDON, Feb 13 - Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Friday he expected underlying inflation in Britain to settle at about 2.5% a year, a rate that would remain above the central bank's 2% objective.
Speaking at an event in London hosted by a financial institution, Pill outlined his view that the current inflation path would hold once a one-off budget-related effect is removed from the near-term outlook. In his words:
"I think when we look at where we are now, short of something happening, underlying inflation is going to be two and a half percent, once we take that half percentage-point impact from the budget out of the forecast we have for April/May,"he said.
Pill's comments come against the backdrop of recent BoE deliberations. Last week he sided with a narrow majority of the Monetary Policy Committee to pause interest-rate adjustments, supporting a decision to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%.
Those votes follow his position in December when he registered opposition to a quarter-point reduction in rates. According to the minutes from February's decision, Pill expressed concern that interest rates had been reduced too quickly in the past and that the inflationary pressures arising from that pace of easing
"still need to be contained and eliminated".
The chief economist's remarks reiterate a cautious stance toward policy easing while acknowledging a projected moderation of headline pressures once a temporary fiscal impact is excluded. He framed the 2.5% figure as the underlying trend in the absence of unforeseen developments, and referenced both the recent committee vote to hold at 3.75% and his earlier dissent against a quicker, larger easing move.
The statement, the committee voting behavior and the minutes together underline an emphasis on preventing a resurgence of inflationary momentum that policymakers view as linked to prior rapid rate reductions. Pill's view, as recorded in the minutes, places maintaining control over those pressures as a continuing priority for monetary policy deliberations.
Context and implications
While Pill pointed to a slightly higher-than-target underlying inflation rate once a budget effect is stripped out of the near-term forecast, he also signaled a preference for caution in future policy adjustments. His recent votes and his comments in the minutes demonstrate a consistent concern that previous easing may have been too swift and that the resulting pressures must be addressed.