Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill urged caution on Friday about reading too much into a near-term decline in headline inflation expected in April when regulated energy prices fall.
Addressing businesses after the Bank of England's February interest rate decision, Pill said the institution should avoid treating the projected dip as a reliable signal that inflation will settle comfortably at target. He drew a parallel with the way the Bank looked through a temporary rise in inflation in 2025 - a hump that the Bank judged to reflect, in part, one-off regulatory measures - and argued policy-makers should apply a similar caution to short-term downward movements.
"There is ... a risk that we draw too much comfort from the ditch in short term inflation dynamics that (was) created by the downside fiscal measures announced last November, and we lose a little bit of a track of where the inflation that is going to be the lasting dynamic in price developments that will still be there once all these one off effects fade out," he said.
Pill emphasized that monetary policy must continue to confront any signs of sustained inflationary pressure. He said the Bank needs to ensure that price growth does not slip below its 2% target as a result of temporary factors, and that the lasting drivers of inflation remain the central consideration for policy decisions.
The chief economist was among the five members of the Bank of England's nine-person Monetary Policy Committee who voted this week to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.75%. That decision followed a quarter-point reduction in December.
Minutes of the committee's deliberations, published on Thursday, recorded Pill's view that the Bank had been easing policy too rapidly. He said he was concerned that renewed inflationary pressures could make it difficult for inflation to remain durably at target after it falls later this year.
Pill's intervention underscores the tension on the committee between interpreting short-term price movements driven by one-off effects - such as changes in regulated utility charges - and assessing the underlying inflation trend that will determine the medium-term path for monetary policy. For sectors sensitive to energy prices and interest-rate direction - notably utilities, household energy consumers and interest-rate exposed corporate borrowers - the distinction between temporary and persistent inflation is particularly consequential.
Summary: Huw Pill cautioned against placing too much weight on a forecasted drop in inflation to 2% in April driven by lower regulated energy prices, arguing that the Bank should focus on the persistent components of inflation. He was part of the 5-4 vote to hold rates at 3.75% and warned that the Bank may have cut rates too quickly, risking future challenges in keeping inflation at target.