Barclays has altered its near-term view on Bank of England policy, now expecting the central bank to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at the March 19 Monetary Policy Committee meeting rather than implement a 25 basis point cut.
In a note released on Friday, the investment bank cited a combination of the ongoing war in the Middle East, upward pressure on energy prices and heightened geopolitical uncertainty as the primary reasons for the revised forecast. Those factors, Barclays said, increase the risk that the MPC will prefer to maintain the current policy stance rather than begin easing in March.
Barclays warned that persistently higher energy prices pose a direct risk to its baseline scenario, which assumes improving economic growth and inflation moving back to the Bank of England's 2% target on a sustained basis. The bank highlighted that an extended energy shock - and potential trade disruptions from an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz - could transmit to UK economic activity through several channels and generate second-round effects on core inflation, depending on how the situation unfolds in the coming weeks.
The note also points out that market pricing has shifted: investors are no longer factoring in rate cuts during the year. With the MPC in its blackout period ahead of the March meeting, Barclays judges that the most probable outcome is a decision to hold rates accompanied by communication aimed at managing market and public expectations.
Recent UK data add to the downside risks to Barclays' first-quarter projection. Official figures showed no growth in real UK GDP in January, short of Barclays' expectation for 0.1% monthly expansion. Industrial production fell 0.1% on the month while services activity was unchanged.
Within the industrial sector, mining and quarrying experienced a notable monthly decline of 3.2%, while manufacturing recorded a modest 0.1% gain. On the services side, administrative services contracted by 2.3% in January, which shaved about 0.16 percentage points off monthly services growth.
The Bank of England/Ipsos inflation expectations survey for the first quarter, fielded between February 6 and 24, showed that 12-month-ahead inflation expectations eased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.2% compared with the fourth quarter. By contrast, longer-term inflation expectations at a five-year horizon remained steady at 3.7%.
On the labour market, Barclays projects a slight deterioration in the unemployment profile and a moderate uptick in private sector pay growth. The bank forecasts the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3% in the January labour market release due on March 19 - up 0.1 percentage points from December. It also expects private sector wage growth on a three-month annualised basis to increase by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%.
Barclays emphasised the transmission mechanism by which higher energy prices can weigh on the economy: weaker terms of trade reduce real income growth and depress consumer spending, while supply disruptions can create bottlenecks for intermediate goods used in manufacturing. The bank added that, should an energy crisis be prolonged, the government is likely to consider fiscal measures to support households and businesses, though such interventions may be narrowly targeted given the chancellor's limited fiscal headroom of just over A320 billion.
Political debate is already emerging around potential fiscal choices. Opposition parties have proposed cancelling the planned reintroduction of a 5 pence fuel duty increase that originated in 2022 and was scheduled to be phased back in over six months starting in September 2026.
Overall, Barclays now views a hold at the March MPC meeting as the most probable outcome, driven by a mix of geopolitical tensions, energy price dynamics and recent data that point to tepid near-term growth. The bank's revised stance reflects an assessment that these factors collectively raise the costs of moving to an easing policy at this stage.