The Bank of Korea has announced a formal expansion of its monetary-policy forward guidance: beginning at the upcoming policy meeting it will publish a quarterly chart showing the interest-rate projections of its seven board members for the next six months.
The new arrangement mirrors a similar approach used elsewhere and will present 21 individual points - three separate projections from each of the seven members - to reflect different possible paths for the policy rate over a six-month horizon. The bank said the measure follows 18 months of pilot testing and will appear at policy meetings held every February, May, August and November when the central bank issues its quarterly economic outlook.
Under the revised process, each board member will submit three anonymous projections that capture their views on plausible interest-rate trajectories during the six-month term. The aggregate chart - the so-called dot plot - will be made public at 10:30 a.m. local time (0130 GMT) after the board concludes its meeting at 09:00 a.m. The release will also include information on any dissenting votes by board members; previously, details about dissenters were disclosed during the opening remarks of press conferences later in the day.
The change builds on a forward guidance practice introduced under Governor Rhee Chang-yong, who took office in April 2022 and launched the Bank of Korea's first formal forward guidance scheme. Since October 2022, the governor has published the interest-rate views of six board members - excluding his own - limited to a three-month outlook at each policy meeting. The new format expands both the number of participating board members and the forecast horizon.
The central bank scheduled the first public release of the new quarterly dot plot for the policy meeting being held on Thursday, marking the official transition from the pilot phase to a standing element of the bank's communication toolkit. The Bank of Korea said the dot plot will accompany the institution's quarterly economic forecasts at the specified meetings.
Reporting details
- The dot plot will contain 21 points: three anonymous projections from each of seven board members for the next six months.
- Release timing: 10:30 a.m. local time (0130 GMT), following a 09:00 a.m. policy meeting.
- Schedule: Published at policy meetings in February, May, August and November alongside quarterly economic forecasts.