Australian consumer prices increased by more than economists had forecast in January, with gains concentrated in housing and health categories and a pick-up in core inflation that reached its fastest annual pace since late 2024. The combination of these outcomes has heightened the prospect of further monetary policy tightening.
Official figures released on Wednesday by the national statistics agency showed the monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in January compared with December. On an annual basis, headline inflation remained at 3.8%.
Those results exceeded median market expectations, which had pointed to a 0.3% monthly increase and a 3.7% year-on-year pace. The data therefore surprised to the upside versus consensus forecasts.
Measures of core inflation also firmed. The trimmed mean measure - a commonly cited gauge of underlying price pressures - rose 0.3% for the month. That took the trimmed mean's annual rate to 3.4% in January, up from 3.3% in December, and above forecasts that had anticipated a 3.3% annual rate.
Market participants reacted to the stronger-than-expected readings by narrowing the probability of an interest-rate increase in May, reflecting the view that the Reserve Bank may face renewed pressure to sustain or tighten policy given persistent inflation above target.
Key data points
- CPI monthly change: +0.4% in January.
- Headline annual CPI: 3.8% (no change from prior reading).
- Trimmed mean monthly change: +0.3%; trimmed mean annual: 3.4% (up from 3.3% in December).
- Median forecasts had been 0.3% monthly and 3.7% annually for headline CPI; 3.3% annual for trimmed mean.
Market and policy implications
The stronger readings in both headline and core inflation measures, together with the pickup in housing and health costs, have prompted traders to reassess the timing of potential central bank action, trimming the estimated chance that a rate move will be postponed beyond May.
Conclusion
January's CPI release showed inflation running hotter than anticipated, with core measures posting their fastest annual rise since late 2024 and headline figures above median forecasts. Those outcomes have increased the likelihood that monetary authorities will face pressure to consider additional tightening.