Economy March 12, 2026

Argentina's February inflation unchanged month-to-month, edges past forecasts

Prices rose 33.1% year-on-year as living costs and food continue to push monthly gains

By Priya Menon
Argentina's February inflation unchanged month-to-month, edges past forecasts

Argentina recorded a 2.9% monthly inflation rate in February, the same rate as January 2026 and slightly above analysts' 2.7% forecast. Over the 12 months through February, consumer prices were up 33.1%, higher than both the previous month's 32.4% and analysts' 32.7% expectation. Rent and utilities led monthly increases, while food and non-alcoholic beverages also showed strong gains.

Key Points

  • Monthly inflation stood at 2.9% in February, unchanged from January 2026 and slightly above the 2.7% analyst forecast.
  • Annual inflation rose to 33.1% through February, higher than the prior month's 32.4% and above analysts' 32.7% forecast.
  • Living costs (rent and utilities) led monthly increases with a 6.8% rise; food and non-alcoholic drinks climbed 3.3% while clothing was unchanged.

BUENOS AIRES - Argentina's consumer price momentum held steady in February, with monthly inflation coming in at 2.9%, matching the pace recorded in the first month of 2026 but narrowly exceeding economists' 2.7% projection.

On an annual basis, prices rose 33.1% in the 12 months through February, up from January's 32.4% and above analysts' consensus of 32.7%. The data underline continuing price pressures across households even as some monthly measures stabilized.

Cost categories showed a mixed pattern in the month. Living costs - a category that includes rent and utilities - recorded the largest monthly increase, rising 6.8%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages followed with a 3.3% jump. Clothing prices were unchanged in the month, while alcohol and tobacco registered a small uptick.

President Javier Milei reiterated this week on television his pledge to drive inflation down to zero and set a target date of August for achieving that goal. The president took office at the end of 2023, when inflation exceeded 200%, and the rate climbed to near 300% in subsequent months.

The February inflation report arrives as Argentine officials are in Washington for talks with U.S. counterparts aimed at deepening economic ties. Separately, a recent monthly central bank survey showed that analysts still expect a slowdown in inflation over time, although their year-end consensus forecast for 2026 rose compared with the January poll.

The February figures show persistent upward pressure on household expenditures, led by housing-related costs and food. Other segments of consumer spending registered modest or no change. The data leave open questions about the path of inflation through the rest of the year and how policy commitments and international engagement will interact with price dynamics.


Sectors most visibly affected:

  • Housing and utilities - largest monthly increase (6.8%)
  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages - notable monthly rise (3.3%)
  • Consumer discretionary categories such as clothing - stable in the month

Risks

  • Political commitment to reduce inflation to zero by August introduces uncertainty around policy feasibility and market expectations - affects household budgets and financial markets.
  • Analysts' year-end 2026 consensus inflation forecast increased from January, indicating uncertainty over the inflation trajectory - relevant for central bank policy, lenders and corporate planning.
  • Outcomes of talks between Argentine and U.S. officials to deepen economic ties are uncertain and could influence external support or investment flows - impacts trade-sensitive sectors and broader economic confidence.

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