Economy March 2, 2026

Air Cargo Demand Climbs 5.6% in January as Regions Diverge

IATA data shows broad capacity growth and strong corridor gains, but the Americas lag and geopolitical and trade uncertainties loom

By Marcus Reed
Air Cargo Demand Climbs 5.6% in January as Regions Diverge

Global air freight demand rose 5.6% year-on-year in January 2026, driven by international moves and notable gains on several trade corridors, according to data published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Monday. Capacity also expanded, though performance varied sharply by region with carriers in the Americas recording an overall decline. IATA flagged trade-policy shifts and Middle East hostilities as potential near-term headwinds for supply chains.

Key Points

  • Global air cargo demand rose 5.6% year-on-year in January 2026; international operations increased 7.2%. This affects airlines and global freight networks.
  • Capacity expanded 3.6% overall and 5.7% for international operations; regionally, Africa, Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Europe outperformed while the Americas contracted.
  • Major trade corridors showed mixed results: Africa-Asia surged 41.6% and Europe-Asia rose 15.2%, while Asia-North America declined 0.6%; these shifts influence supply-chain flows and logistics planning.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported on Monday that global air cargo demand increased 5.6% year-on-year in January 2026, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers. International operations outperformed the overall market, growing 7.2% over the same period.

Available cargo tonne-kilometers - a standard capacity measure - rose 3.6% compared with January 2025. International capacity was up 5.7% year-on-year.


Regional results showed marked divergence. Carriers in Africa, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific and Europe all posted demand growth above the global average. By contrast, carriers across the Americas recorded aggregate contractions.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said the air cargo market got off to a robust start in 2026. He cautioned, however, that evolving U.S. trade policies and the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East will weigh on global supply chains in the coming months. Walsh noted these topics will be on the agenda at the World Cargo Symposium in Lima, Peru, scheduled for March 10-12, 2026.


Broader trade and economic indicators included in IATA's release showed global goods trade grew 4.9% year-on-year in December 2025. Jet fuel prices fell 6.5% year-on-year in January. The global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.8 in January, its highest level in over a year and a half, while the PMI for new export orders climbed to 49.9.

Regional detail:

  • Asia-Pacific: Airlines recorded 7.8% year-on-year growth in demand in January, with capacity up 3.3% year-on-year.
  • North America: Carriers saw a 0.5% year-on-year decline in demand, and capacity decreased 0.2% year-on-year - the only region to show a capacity contraction.
  • Europe: Airlines posted a 6.9% year-on-year increase in demand, with capacity rising 4.9% year-on-year.
  • Middle East: Carriers reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in demand, and capacity grew 9.9% year-on-year - the strongest capacity rise among regions.
  • Latin America and Caribbean: Demand fell 2.0% year-on-year, the weakest regional performance, while capacity increased 2.3% year-on-year.
  • Africa: Airlines recorded 18.2% year-on-year growth in demand, the strongest demand gain of all regions, with capacity up 6.5% year-on-year.

Air freight volumes by corridor also showed uneven movement. The Africa-Asia route grew 41.6% year-on-year, marking a seventh straight month of expansion on that lane. The Asia-North America route slipped 0.6%.

Other corridors with gains included Europe-Asia, which increased 15.2% and extended its growth streak to 35 consecutive months, and Europe-Middle East, which rose 10.2%. Europe-North America increased 3.8%, marking 24 consecutive months of growth on that route. The Middle East-Asia corridor expanded 12.9%, extending growth to 11 consecutive months.

Intra-regional volumes were also positive in several markets. Within Asia, volumes rose 14.3%, the 27th consecutive month of growth. Within Europe, volumes increased 1.0%, representing two consecutive months of expansion.


The January data depict a market with solid aggregate demand and expanding capacity, yet with notable regional contrasts and corridor-level shifts. Growth concentrated in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Europe contrasts with softness across the Americas, while risks related to trade policy and geopolitical developments remain on IATA's radar ahead of the World Cargo Symposium in March.

Risks

  • Evolving U.S. trade policies are cited as a potential headwind for global supply chains and international freight volumes.
  • The outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East is identified as a risk that could weigh on global supply chains and air cargo operations in affected corridors.
  • Regional softness in the Americas and declines on some key lanes, such as Asia-North America, create uncertainty for carriers and shippers operating those routes.

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