Currencies February 13, 2026

Record Underweight in U.S. Dollar Holdings as Index Heads for Weekly Decline

Bank of America finds investor exposure to the dollar at unprecedented lows in its dataset even after easing of Fed independence concerns

By Nina Shah
Record Underweight in U.S. Dollar Holdings as Index Heads for Weekly Decline

The U.S. dollar is trading marginally higher intraday but is poised for a weekly loss, while Bank of America Securities reports investor underweight positioning in the dollar at levels not seen in its sample going back to January 2012. The bank's Feb. 13 note says the nomination of Kevin Warsh reduced worries over Fed independence but did not translate into renewed demand for the currency or U.S. assets. Survey responses were mostly collected before a recent positive U.S. jobs report that could temper the bearish stance.

Key Points

  • Dollar Index traded 0.1% higher at 96.915 at 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT) but was set for a weekly decline of about 0.6% - impacts foreign exchange markets and asset allocations.
  • Bank of America Securities (note dated Feb. 13) found investor exposure to the U.S. dollar at record low levels within its sample beginning January 2012 - affects asset managers, reserve managers, and holders of U.S. assets.
  • Survey respondents largely prefer increasing FX hedge ratios or reducing exposure to U.S. assets; reserve managers expect continued reductions in dollar holdings and faster rebalancing - relevant for sovereign reserves and institutional investors.

At 08:15 ET (13:15 GMT), the Dollar Index - which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of six other major currencies - was trading 0.1% higher at 96.915. Despite the intraday uptick, the index was on course for a weekly decline of about 0.6%.

In a note dated Feb. 13, analysts at Bank of America Securities highlighted that the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve chief has substantially reduced concerns about the central bank's independence. However, the analysts added that easing of those worries has not resulted in stronger demand for the dollar nor in renewed optimism toward U.S. assets.

The bank's survey results show that investor exposure to the U.S. dollar has fallen below the levels recorded in April 2025 and reached lows not previously observed within BofA's sampling period, which begins in January 2012. In addition, the survey indicated that a majority of respondents prefer either to raise their foreign exchange hedge ratios or to reduce their overall exposures to U.S. assets.

Bank of America also reported a strengthening belief among respondents that reserve managers will continue to cut their holdings of U.S. dollars. A larger share of those surveyed now expect an increased pace of rebalancing away from dollar holdings.

The bank cautioned that most survey responses were collected before the publication of a recent positive U.S. jobs report. That report could alleviate some of the prevailing bearish sentiment toward the dollar, the note said, since near-term support for the currency is most likely to come from U.S. data resilience and any Fed repricing that follows stronger economic signals.


Contextual implications

While the nomination of a new Fed chief has eased institutional concerns about central bank independence, that relief has not yet prompted a reversal in investor positioning. The data show a clear preference among many investors for reducing direct dollar exposure or increasing currency hedges, and reserve managers in particular appear to be leaning into a continued reduction of dollar allocations.

The timing of the survey relative to the recent jobs release is an important caveat: market participants may update their allocations as fresh U.S. economic data feeds into Fed policy expectations.

Risks

  • Most survey responses were collected before a recent positive U.S. jobs report; updated labor data could reduce bearish sentiment toward the dollar - impacts currency markets and Fed repricing expectations.
  • Despite easing concerns over Fed independence after Kevin Warsh's nomination, that development did not immediately boost demand for the dollar or U.S. assets, leaving uncertainty about near-term directional flows - affects FX liquidity and asset allocation decisions.
  • An anticipated faster pace of rebalancing away from dollar holdings by reserve managers could exert continued downward pressure on the currency if realized - relevant to foreign exchange and sovereign balance sheets.

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