Goldman Sachs recommends investors consider short positions in the euro against the Swiss franc as one of the better hedges available against inflation pressures tied to rising oil prices, according to a note issued by the bank.
The bank argues that recent increases in oil have pushed market pricing for inflation risk higher and have put pressure on currencies that are sensitive to inflation trends, with European currencies singled out as especially affected.
Goldman Sachs points to the Swiss franc's distinctive position in this environment. The note emphasizes that the Swiss National Bank is structurally hawkish and targets inflation below 2%, a stance that contrasts with most other G10 central banks. This policy orientation makes the franc comparatively attractive as inflation concerns rise.
The bank notes that EUR/CHF has functioned as a reasonable hedge so far this year. An initial, pronounced upward move in the pair coincided with an SNB media statement on intervention, although that effect proved temporary as risks to Euro area growth and inflation continued to increase.
Goldman Sachs draws a parallel between the current pattern and the dynamics observed in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while stressing that 2022 is an imperfect comparison. The bank points out two differences: natural gas prices have not risen by comparable magnitudes, and the global cyclical backdrop is softer now. In the earlier episode, EUR/CHF first increased following SNB intervention and then when risk sentiment recovered, but later fell sharply as the full inflation shock became evident.
In the present setting, Goldman Sachs says that if energy prices and Euro area growth risks remain elevated, the downward pressure on EUR/CHF should continue. The bank highlights that this exposure provides useful inflation protection in the current environment, and it recommends that investors implement such exposure primarily through options formats.
By contrast, Goldman Sachs does not consider USD/CHF to be an effective inflation hedge. The bank cites a less clear risk beta for the dollar in response to higher oil prices and points to the dollar's relative resilience to rising oil, which makes USD/CHF less suitable for the specific inflation-hedging purpose discussed in the note.
Investors weighing currency hedges should note the specific features Goldman Sachs identifies: the franc's policy-driven resilience, the role of energy-driven inflation in shaping currency performance, and the bank's preference for options-based implementations when seeking protection via EUR/CHF.
Summary
Goldman Sachs recommends shorting EUR/CHF as a hedge against oil-driven inflation risk, citing the Swiss National Bank's hawkish policy and advocating options-based approaches. The bank does not endorse USD/CHF as an inflation hedge due to the dollar's relative resilience to oil-price shocks.
Key points
- Goldman Sachs recommends short EUR/CHF positions to protect against inflation risks tied to higher oil prices, identifying European currencies as particularly inflation-sensitive - impacted markets: FX and European inflation-sensitive sectors.
- The Swiss franc's structural hawkishness and the SNB's sub-2% inflation target make CHF a preferred defensive currency in this scenario - impacted markets: FX and central bank policy-sensitive assets.
- Goldman Sachs prefers options formats for expressing EUR/CHF downside, and it does not view USD/CHF as an effective inflation hedge because of the dollar's relative resilience - impacted markets: options markets and currency hedging strategies.
Risks and uncertainties
- If energy prices or Euro area growth risks do not remain elevated, the anticipated EUR/CHF downside may not persist - impacted markets: FX and European growth-sensitive assets.
- The comparison to 2022 is imperfect; differences in natural gas price moves and a softer global cyclical backdrop mean past dynamics may not fully predict current outcomes - impacted markets: FX and commodity-sensitive sectors.
- USD/CHF's risk beta and the dollar's resilience to oil-price increases introduce uncertainty about using dollar-franc positions for inflation protection - impacted markets: FX and dollar-denominated hedges.