Market snapshot
The U.S. dollar eased a touch on Thursday but retained most of Wednesday's advance following the Federal Reserve's released minutes from its most recent policy meeting. At 04:55 ET (09:55 GMT), the Dollar Index - which measures the greenback against six other currencies - was trading 0.1% lower at 97.535 after having jumped roughly 0.6% overnight and climbing off recent lows.
Fed minutes and policy implications
The minutes published from the Fed's latest meeting showed a split among officials over the policy outlook. Several participants signalled that rates may need to remain elevated for an extended period, and some were open to further tightening if inflation proves persistent.
Analysts at ING interpreted the minutes as a clear reminder that U.S. monetary policy will remain relatively restrictive for now. In their note they wrote: "Our takeaway is that the emphasis will now shift from the labor market back to the inflation readings. These need to fall to validate the two rate cuts still priced into money markets this year. We think that will be the case and that the Fed will indeed cut twice."
Investors are also watching the economic calendar for additional cues, including weekly initial jobless claims and the December trade balance. ING noted that "a narrower-than-expected December trade deficit today would add to expectations of a decent 4Q25 GDP figure tomorrow and could provide the dollar with a little short-term support."
European currencies
EUR/USD traded 0.1% higher to 1.1800, with the euro recovering some ground after an earlier decline linked to the FOMC minutes and a report that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has discussed the possibility of leaving before her term ends in October next year. The report said Lagarde has told colleagues she remains focused on her job and that she would inform them first if she intended to step down.
ING added that the Fed minutes did not justify EUR/USD trading substantially below 1.18 and reiterated a forecast that EUR/USD could finish March near 1.19.
GBP/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.3498. Sterling is on course for weekly losses of about 1% after a sharp fall in inflation earlier in the week raised the prospect of a Bank of England rate cut next month.
Asia and other pairs
In Asia, USD/JPY gained 0.1% to 154.94 as trading volumes were thin in parts of the region because of Lunar New Year holidays. The Fed minutes confirmed that the New York Fed checked rates in USD/JPY in January on behalf of the U.S. Treasury and in its role as the U.S. government's fiscal agent.
ING argued that with both authorities aligned and with monetary policy moving in complementary directions - the Fed easing and the Bank of Japan moving toward tightening - there could be interest from asset managers to sell USD/JPY in the 156/158 area.
USD/CNY was largely unchanged at 6.9087, staying close to near three-year lows as Chinese markets remain closed for the rest of the week.
Australian dollar
AUD/USD rose 0.4% to 0.7074 after data showed Australia's unemployment rate held at 4.1% in January. The figure was read as evidence of a still-tight labour market despite a moderation in employment growth.
That labour-market resilience was interpreted as reinforcing the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish bias after it raised its cash rate earlier this month, citing persistent inflation and resilient jobs conditions.
Outlook
The Fed minutes have left markets focused on inflation readings and upcoming U.S. data that could either validate or challenge the rate-cut profile currently priced into markets. Currency moves were modest on the day, reflecting a cautious market digesting policy signals and thin holiday trading in parts of Asia.