Blockchain analytics companies monitoring activity on Iranian exchanges registered a pronounced surge in cash moving out of those platforms in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Saturday, according to multiple research firms tracking on-chain flows.
U.S. blockchain researcher Chainalysis reported that outflows from Iranian crypto exchanges rose sharply, exceeding $2 million in the single hour after the strikes began. First reports of the strikes were around 0615 GMT on Saturday. Chainalysis further calculated that, across the period from Saturday through Monday, a total of $10.3 million in cryptocurrency left Iranian exchanges.
British blockchain firm Elliptic provided additional, exchange-level detail. It said activity at Nobitex - Iran’s largest crypto exchange - spiked between 1100 and 1200 GMT on Saturday, when outflows peaked at $2.89 million. Elliptic characterised that peak as about eight times larger than the previous day’s highest hourly outflows.
Nobitex was not available for comment.
How researchers interpret the flows
Analysts emphasised that blockchain data alone provide limited visibility into the identities and motives of those initiating transfers. Wallet addresses on public blockchains are pseudonymous - they appear as strings of characters rather than real-world names - which complicates attribution.
Chainalysis warned that several explanations are plausible for the recent movements. The firm said some flows probably reflect ordinary Iranians moving funds in response to an elevated sense of risk. Other flows could represent exchanges rearranging liquidity or seeking to lower the on-chain visibility of their operations. Chainalysis also noted the possibility that state-aligned actors employed mainstream platforms to move funds.
Elliptic said its initial tracing suggested that funds from Nobitex were routed to overseas crypto exchanges, and that the pattern could potentially reflect capital flight from Iran. Another U.S. blockchain research firm, TRM, described the Nobitex flows as more indicative of activity under stress than as proof of systemic capital flight.
Context on crypto use in Iran
The data on recent outflows feeds into a broader picture of growing cryptocurrency activity in Iran, researchers say. Estimates cited by those researchers put crypto transaction volumes in 2025 within an $8 billion to $11 billion range, as both retail investors and state-linked actors have made use of digital currencies.
U.S. authorities are also examining whether particular crypto platforms may have been used to facilitate sanctions evasion by Iranian officials, according to reporting from February.
What remains uncertain
Despite the quantification of funds moving off Iranian exchanges, the firms involved emphasise the limits of on-chain evidence. Chainalysis stated it is not clear who moved the funds in recent days or the precise reasons for those movements. The firms' assessments range from ordinary risk-driven transfers to liquidity reshuffling by exchanges or actions by state-aligned actors, but the on-chain data do not allow definitive conclusions.
The episode illustrates both the visibility that blockchain analysis provides into cross-border crypto flows and the attribution challenges that persist when trying to link wallet activity to specific actors or intents.