Bank of America says the Swedish krona has been a robust performer against the euro since late 2025 and that the currency's near-term outlook remains constructive, according to a report published Monday.
In its forecast, the bank expects EUR/SEK to end 2026 at 10.50. BofA characterizes its risk profile as "skewed to the downside," indicating that the krona could potentially strengthen further than the central projection.
The bank's technical assessment identifies a resistance zone between 10.75 and 10.83 and support in the area of 10.40 to 10.20. These levels frame the bank's view on likely trading ranges and potential reaction points for market participants.
While BofA emphasizes the krona's recent gains, its note also outlines potential interruptions to that trend. The bank warns that "the krona could be hurt by a surge in trade uncertainty or a larger equity market correction," but it expects any such moves would be temporary rather than long lasting.
For a more severe outcome, the report sketches a downside scenario tied to a notable deterioration in global growth. Under that scenario, EUR/SEK could move back toward 11.20, which would represent a weakening of the krona relative to the euro and reverse part of the gains the currency has registered.
Overall, BofA's analysis indicates continued favorable conditions for the krona through the rest of 2026 so long as there are no major disruptions to the global economy. The bank's guidance couples a constructive base case with explicit technical thresholds and spelled-out risk scenarios for market participants monitoring currency moves, equity volatility, and trade-related developments.
Context and implications
The bank links its EUR/SEK outlook primarily to Sweden's domestic growth picture and technical market signals. Traders and investors will likely watch the specified resistance and support bands, as well as data and events that could feed trade uncertainty or trigger equity corrections, for signs that the bank's base case should be adjusted.