Bank of America retains a near-term bullish tilt on the U.S. dollar, observing that the DXY index continues to trade within a historically narrow 12-month range, according to a research note published Thursday.
The bank notes that since the onset of the Iran war the dollar has effectively made a full round trip. The currency initially strengthened alongside the first jump in oil prices, then softened after an April ceasefire announcement. That sequence left the dollar roughly where it began, the bank said.
Consolidation in front-month oil futures - driven by hopes for a resolution to the conflict - has helped keep both foreign exchange volatility and the dollar itself largely subdued, the research note added.
Despite recent upside surprises in a string of U.S. data - spanning labor, retail sales and inflation releases - the dollar has drawn only modest support from these prints, according to Bank of America.
From a monetary policy perspective, the market has shown reluctance to meaningfully price the upper tail of the Federal Reserve Funds distribution. That hesitancy has translated into only limited pricing of Fed rate hikes across the curve, the bank said.
By contrast, the bank observes that a notably larger number of rate increases have been reflected in pricing across several other G10 central bank curves. Given the relative outlooks for economies, Bank of America expects central bank pricing to be more likely to converge than to diverge.
The bank's assessment underscores a view that, while current volatility and moves in oil futures have muted near-term currency swings, upside risks to the dollar may not be fully reflected in market pricing.
Context and market implications
- The DXY index remains range-bound within a narrow 12-month band.
- Oil futures consolidation has reduced FX volatility and capped dollar moves.
- Markets have only modestly priced further Fed tightening, while other G10 central banks show more aggressive hike pricing.