At 08:35 ET (13:35 GMT), the euro traded against the U.S. dollar at $1.1786, up 0.1% on the session, although the pair has fallen 0.8% over the past month.
Despite recent strength in the U.S. dollar versus the euro, analysts at Bank of America Securities reiterated a constructive view on EUR/USD in a note dated February 25. "We remain bullish EUR/USD but continue to expect the larger move to materialise from 2Q onward - once the U.S. peak tax‑refund season has passed and Germany’s fiscal impulse is more visible in the data," they said.
The bank flagged a key scenario that could alter the timing of that projection: an earlier and sharper euro rally if European investors accelerate structural buying, whether through selling U.S. assets or through more active hedge‑ratio adjustments. To date, the bank said, market behaviour - including prices, flows and hedging signals - provides little evidence that such a wave of buying is under way.
Bank of America unpacked the recent pattern of EUR/USD moves, noting an unusual degree of time-zone dispersion in January's rally. Much of that advance occurred during U.S. trading hours, the bank said, which points to dominance by investors based in the United States rather than to a surge of foreign purchases. While the pair did gain during early European sessions, it reversed in February, a development the bank interprets as not yet consistent with substantial structural buying by European investors.
Further, EUR/USD tended to weaken during Asian trading hours, a dynamic the bank attributes to rebalancing flows outweighing diversification flows. That observation aligns with the bank's broader foreign exchange flow indicators, which suggest few signs that investors are rapidly unwinding U.S. exposures.
At the same time, relative equity performance indicates a rotation of the marginal investment dollar into non-U.S. markets. Bank of America cited EPFR data showing the U.S. share of global equity inflows so far in 2026 is at its lowest level since 2020.
Summing up the flow picture, the bank said it is more accurate to characterise current behaviour as "Do not buy America" rather than an outright "sell America" trend - a distinction that implies slower U.S. dollar depreciation than would occur under a full-scale debasement scenario.
Summary
Bank of America remains positive on EUR/USD but expects the more decisive move to unfold from the second quarter, conditioned on the end of peak U.S. tax refunds and clearer evidence of German fiscal stimulus in the data. Market flows and timing of moves so far do not indicate large-scale structural buying by European investors.
Key points
- EUR/USD quoted at $1.1786 at 08:35 ET (13:35 GMT), up 0.1% on the session but down 0.8% over the past month.
- Bank of America expects a larger euro advance from Q2 once U.S. tax-refund flows fade and Germany's fiscal impulse becomes apparent in data.
- Flow indicators and time-zone patterns suggest U.S.-based investor activity has been the dominant influence so far, with EPFR data showing the U.S. share of global equity inflows at its lowest since 2020 - a development affecting FX markets and equity allocation decisions.
Risks and uncertainties
- An accelerated, sharper euro rally could occur earlier than expected if European investors step up structural buying through U.S. asset sales or hedge-ratio adjustments - a risk to the timing of BofA's view.
- Current price action, flows and hedging drivers show little evidence of large-scale European buying; continued absence of such evidence would keep upside concentrated later in the year.
- Rebalancing flows outweighing diversification flows in Asian hours may continue to mute euro strength in the near term, creating uncertainty for FX traders and cross-border portfolio managers.