Bank of America expects the euro to struggle against the Norwegian krone over the next 12 months, forecasting an ongoing downtrend in the EUR/NOK exchange rate despite room for temporary upward moves.
In a research note published Monday, the bank said EUR/NOK has "come off its recent highs rapidly," noting the pair has already moved beyond its March 2026 projection of 11.50. The strategists view any short-lived rises in the pair as "an opportunity to position for further declines," signaling that tactical upticks are likely to be part of a broader weakening of the euro versus the krone.
Bank of America outlined immediate technical thresholds for market participants. Support is marked in a range between 11.15 and 11.20, which the note called "the next key threshold to test for the downtrend to continue." On the other side, resistance was identified at 11.58-11.60, representing the level that would need to be overcome to challenge the bearish trajectory.
The research also highlighted several risk factors capable of altering the projected path:
- A substantially stronger krone could prompt accelerated rate reductions from Norges Bank, which would affect the outlook for EUR/NOK.
- Global risk-off episodes driven by AI-related disruptions in equity markets were flagged as a potential headwind that could influence currency flows.
- Tighter global financial conditions may arise if the Federal Reserve refrains from further easing because US economic data remain robust, adding another variable that could tighten liquidity and affect exchange-rate dynamics.
Bank of America’s assessment concludes that the Norwegian krone has appreciated versus the euro faster than previously anticipated, but the institution maintains that the prevailing trend is downward for EUR/NOK. Temporary rallies are expected to occur, yet these are characterized as likely components of a longer-term decline rather than a reversal of the overall direction.
The note provides clear technical markers for traders and portfolio managers to monitor while stressing that several macroeconomic and market-sentiment developments could prompt a reassessment.