Standard Chartered has revised down its short-term price outlook for major digital assets, warning investors that more losses could precede a recovery later in 2026. Geoff Kendrick, who leads the bank's global digital assets research team, described recent market moves as "challenging, to say the least," and argued that further price capitulation is probable in the coming months.
In a research note, Kendrick projects that Bitcoin could fall to roughly $50,000, and that Ethereum could bottom around $1,400 if bitcoin reaches that level. He said: "We expect further price capitulation in the next few months," and used ETF flows and macro data to justify the nearer-term downside view.
According to Kendrick, the current sell-off has not been as extreme as the 2022 episode and, importantly, has not produced the collapse of any major trading platforms. He interprets those differences as signs that the asset class is maturing and demonstrating greater resilience. Nevertheless, holdings of digital asset ETFs have declined in an "orderly manner," with the average Bitcoin ETF holding down roughly 25% from its peak. Kendrick estimates that ETF holdings of Bitcoin have fallen by almost 100,000 coins since their October 2025 high.
Those shifts matter in part because the average ETF purchase price sits at around $90,000, leaving many institutional and retail ETF investors in "sharp unrealised loss territory," in Kendrick's words. The research team believes that, given these unrealized losses, ETF holders are "more likely to sell, rather than buy the dip, for now." That behavioural dynamic is central to the bank's view that Bitcoin could reach, or slip just below, the $50,000 level over the next few months, with a commensurate trough for Ethereum near $1,400 should that occur.
Kendrick also flagged macroeconomic headwinds as an additional constraint on inflows to digital assets. He noted mixed U.S. economic data and observed that market pricing implies no policy rate cuts before a change in Federal Reserve leadership in June - a timing he views as leaving digital assets vulnerable to weaker inflows until that change materializes.
Despite the nearer-term downgrade, Standard Chartered retains a constructive longer-term stance. Kendrick writes that "once the lows have been reached, we expect the asset class to recover for the rest of 2026." To reflect the shorter-term risk, the bank has cut its end-2026 midpoint forecasts: Bitcoin is now seen at $100,000 by the end of 2026, down from a prior $150,000 forecast, and Ethereum is forecast at $4,000 versus a previous $7,500. The bank did not change its long-term targets through 2030.
Analyst note - The outlook described here balances near-term technical and flow-related pressures against a still-constructive multi-year view. Kendrick's updated numbers reflect the bank's assessment of investor positioning, ETF purchase prices, observed outflows, and prevailing macro expectations.