Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani described the latest weakness in Bitcoin as "the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history," saying the recent downtrend is rooted in a crisis of confidence among market participants rather than the unearthing of structural faults.
In a Monday note, Chhugani wrote that the current episode does not reflect system-wide failures. "Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is back again to write an obituary," he said, framing the sell-off as largely narrative-driven.
Chhugani argued the decline came even as a number of developments were lining up in Bitcoin's favor. "Imagine when everything is lining up - Bitcoin President, ETFs, institutional adoption and loudest cheer leader with skin in the game (Strategy, BlackRock et al), Bitcoin’s retail community manufactures a self-imposed crisis," he wrote, suggesting that enthusiasm from institutional actors has not prevented retail-driven doubts from amplifying downside moves.
The analyst addressed the narrative that Bitcoin has lost its moment as gold outperformed during the recent period. He attributed the divergence to liquidity conditions, saying Bitcoin "has always been a liquidity trade" and is observed as a risk asset when liquidity tightens. Chhugani expects that a reversal toward improved liquidity conditions would change that dynamic.
To illustrate the gap between flows and price action, he pointed to exchange-traded funds tied to Bitcoin, noting they have seen only a 7% outflow while prices experienced roughly a 50% correction. In Chhugani's view, that disparity highlights that capital rotations and sentiment shifts, rather than mass exits, largely explain recent price moves.
On questions about crypto's role in an AI-driven future, Chhugani pushed back on the notion that blockchain and digital assets are becoming less relevant. He argued there is "a strong technological case for crypto and blockchains in an agentic world," calling blockchain "AI’s natural financial partner in the agentic economy." He described programmable wallets and open ledgers as infrastructure capable of supporting high-velocity, automated transactions among AI agents.
Chhugani also addressed concerns about quantum computing risks. He acknowledged quantum computing as a threat but argued it is neither unique to Bitcoin nor immediate. "Framing quantum computing as a Bitcoin-killer ignores the timeline, the upgrade path and the fact that the entire digital world shares the same vulnerability," he wrote, adding that the involvement of large institutions improves the prospect that Bitcoin can adapt alongside other critical systems.
The note examined possible pressures from leveraged corporate buyers and miner distress. Chhugani said only an extreme and prolonged price collapse would compel major holders to restructure balance sheets, suggesting typical market swings are unlikely to force such outcomes. On miners, he noted a shift in their business models away from sole reliance on block economics, highlighting engagement with AI data center contracts as a source of revenue diversification.
"Bitcoin miners are direct AI beneficiaries and this has strengthened Bitcoin, because they are becoming regular sellers of Bitcoin (which is easily absorbed in the market) and they don’t have to unload a large Bitcoin inventory on one final day of financial capitulation to repay their debts. The days of miner bankruptcy are done in this AI age," Chhugani wrote.
Summing up his view, Chhugani reiterated a bullish stance into 2026, maintaining a price forecast for Bitcoin of roughly $150,000 by 2026. The note frames the current sell-off as a confidence-driven interruption within an otherwise constructive backdrop, rather than evidence of an irreversible structural breakdown.
Analyst: Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein (Monday note)
Key forecast: 2026 Bitcoin price estimate - roughly $150,000